How will college students vote? Swing state poll shows big gap between Harris and Trump
College students, a historically left-leaning demographic, are considered a key voting group in the 2024 presidential election.
Their votes are especially important in seven battleground states, which could shape the election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
An analysis from the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts University showed young voters in 2022 had a major impact in swing states, shifting some of the key Senate battles.
Could they do the same in the 2024 presidential election?
A poll conducted Nov. 1 to Nov. 4 with college students enrolled in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona show a massive advantage for the vice president.
Generation Lab, which surveyed 639 students, found 72% of respondents favored Harris over Trump in the full field of candidates, a margin of 51 percentage points. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
More than three-fourths of the respondents said their support aligns with their immediate family members, whereas 21% say they are “not really aligned” or “not aligned at all.”
Why does this matter? College students are usually allowed to vote in either their hometown or where they attend school, according to Vote.org.
It’s why some students in battleground states plan on casting their vote in their college state, ABC News reported.
“For this upcoming general election, my decision to change my registration (from New York to Pennsylvania) was based on impact and also ease,” Julia Levine, a senior at the University of Pennsylvania, told ABC News. “My hometown elections tend to go one way or another without much swing, so I thought my vote would count more in a swing state.”
Across all states, 58% of people aged 18 to 29 said in a New York Times/Siena College poll that they plan on voting for Harris. The poll, conducted Sept. 29 to Oct. 6 with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points, showed 37% of people said they would vote for Trump.
Similarly, a Harvard Kennedy School poll showed people aged 18 to 29 overwhelmingly prefer Harris to Trump, with a 64% to 32% advantage. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.65 percentage points.
“(Harris) really does know how to connect with the young people,” Indiana University of Pennsylvania student Samya Settles told NPR. “She is us.”
The Harvard poll also found young Democrats are showing more enthusiasm, with 74% saying they will “definitely” vote, compared to 60% among young Republicans polled.
In the 2020 election, President Joe Biden’s advantage among youths was a key factor in his win. A Pew Research Center analysis showed Biden won the demographic by 24 percentage points.
Half of young people voted in the 2020 election, an increase of 11% from 2016, according to Tufts University. At least 51% of the demographic in six battleground states cast their vote, with data unavailable for Wisconsin.
“As soon as Gen Z turned 18, we began to buck youth voter trends,” Jack Lobel, the national press secretary for Voters of Tomorrow, told USA Today. “Gen Z is showing up to vote against all odds.”
This story was originally published November 5, 2024 at 9:56 AM with the headline "How will college students vote? Swing state poll shows big gap between Harris and Trump."