Where do Trump and Harris stand in swing states before Election Day? What polls show

This year’s presidential campaign season — marked by assassination attempts and President Joe Biden’s last-minute withdrawal from the race — is finally drawing to a close.

Now, on the eve of Election Day, all eyes are drawn to the handful of battleground states that will likely determine whether former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris is victorious.

Here is what recent polls reveal about the race in these crucial swing states.

These numbers are up to date as of Nov. 4 at 1:20 p.m. ET.

Pennsylvania

Polling averages

• According to FiveThirtyEight, an election analysis site, Trump and Harris are about dead-even in the Keystone State. An average compiled by Nate Silver, a leading pollster, gives Trump an exceedingly small edge — 48.3% to 48%.

Individual polls

• Trump led Harris 49% to 48%, according to an InsiderAdvantage poll conducted between Nov. 1 and 2. It sampled 800 likely voters and has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

• In a two-way match-up, Trump held a 2-point lead — about 50% to 48% — in an AtlasIntel poll fielded during the same time frame. It sampled 2,049 likely voters in the state and has a margin of error of 2 percentage points.

• The candidates were tied at 48% each in the latest New York Times/Siena College poll. It sampled 1,527 likely voters and has a margin of error of about 3.5 percentage points.

• Harris led Trump 50 to 49% in the recent Research Co. poll conducted Nov. 2 to Nov. 3. It sampled 450 likely voters and has a margin of error of 4.6 percentage points.

Michigan

Polling averages

• According to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average, Harris holds a 1-point advantage over Trump. Similarly, Nate Silver’s average has the vice president leading by about 1 point — 48.4% to 47.2%.

Individual polls

• The two candidates were dead-even at 47% each in an InsiderAdvantage poll conducted between Nov. 1 and 2. The poll sampled 1,198 likely voters and has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

• Trump and Harris were again tied at 47% each in the latest New York Times/Siena College poll, which sampled 998 likely voters in the state and has a margin of error of about 3.5 percentage points.

• Harris edged out Trump by 2 points — 50% to 48% — in an Emerson College poll fielded between Oct. 20 and Nov. 2. It sampled 790 state residents and has a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.

Wisconsin

Polling averages

• Harris holds a 0.9-point advantage in the Badger State, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. She also holds a 1-point lead over Trump — 48.7% to 47.7% — according to Nate Silver’s average.

Individual polls

• The former president led Harris by 1 point — 49% to 48% — in the latest InsiderAdvantage poll, which sampled 800 likely voters and has a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.

• He also outpaced Harris in a two-way match-up by 1 point — about 50% to 49% — in the latest AtlasIntel poll, which sampled 728 state residents and has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

• Harris, on the other hand, held a 2-point lead — 49% to 47% — in the latest New York Times/Siena College poll. It sampled 1,305 voters in Wisconsin and has a margin of error of about 3.5 percentage points.

Arizona

Polling averages

• Trump is ahead by 2.6 points in Arizona, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. Similarly, he is leading by 2.4 points, according to Nate Silver’s average.

Individual polls

• Trump is 3 points ahead of Harris — 49% to 46% — in the Grand Canyon State, according to the latest InsiderAdvantage poll, which sampled 800 likely voters and has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

• He had an even larger lead — 49% to 45% — in the most recent New York Times/Siena College poll, which sampled 1,025 likely voters in the state and has a margin of error of about 3.5 percentage points.

Nevada

Polling averages

• The former president has a 0.4-point lead over the vice president in Nevada, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. He holds a 0.4-point lead over Harris, according to Nate Silver’s average.

Individual polls and one prediction

• Trump outpaced Harris by about 6 points in a two-way match-up — about 52% to 46% — in the latest AtlasIntel poll, which sampled 782 likely voters and has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

• Both candidates were tied at 48% in the most recent Emerson College poll, which sampled 840 state residents and has a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points.

• In contrast, Harris led Trump by 3 points — 49% to 46% — in the latest New York Times/Siena College poll. It sampled 1,010 voters and has a margin of error of about 3.5 percentage points.
  
  
• Jon Ralston, the editor of the Nevada Independent, predicted Harris would win the state by less than one percentage point. He made the forecast in a Nov. 4 column posted online and added that he has never been wrong in predicting the outcome of the presidential election in Nevada.
  
  

Georgia

Polling averages

• Trump holds a 1.1-point lead over Harris in The Peach State, according to FiveThirtyEight’s average. And, according to Nate Silver’s average, he holds a 1.2-point lead.

Individual polls

• The former president outpaced Harris by 1 point — 49% to 48% — in the latest InsiderAdvantage poll, which sampled 800 likely voters and has a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points.

• In contrast, Harris held a 1-point advantage — 48% to 47% — in the most recent New York Times/Siena College poll, which sampled 1,004 voters in the state and has a margin of error of about 3.5 percentage points.

North Carolina

Polling averages

• Trump holds a 1.2-point lead over Harris in the Tar Heel State, according to FiveThirtyEight’s average. According to Nate Silver’s average, he holds a 1.1-point lead.

Individual polls

• The former president edged out Harris by 2 points — 49% to 47% — in the most recent InsiderAdvantage poll, which sampled 800 likely voters and has a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.

• In a two-way match-up, Trump held about a 4-point lead — about 51% to 47% — in the latest AtlasIntel poll, which sampled 1,310 respondents and has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

• On the other hand, Harris outpaced Trump by 2 points — 48% to 46% — in the most recent New York Times/Siena College poll. It sampled 1,010 voters in the state and has a margin of error of about 3.5 percentage points.

This story was originally published November 4, 2024 at 1:20 PM with the headline "Where do Trump and Harris stand in swing states before Election Day? What polls show."