Where do Trump and Harris stand in ‘blue wall’ states? Here’s what new polls reveal

Vice President Kamala Harris holds a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump in the all-important “blue wall” states, according to the latest batch of Marist College polls.

The three swing states — Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — are expected to play a pivotal role in the 2024 election, which is just days away. They broke for Trump in 2016 and for President Joe Biden in 2020.

Here is a state-by-state breakdown of the findings from the polls, which were conducted between Oct. 27 and 30.

Pennsylvania

In the Pennsylvania poll, Harris led Trump among likely voters by two points — 50% to 48%. One percent said they were undecided, and another 1% said they supported a third party candidate.

The results mark a slight improvement for Harris from a September poll, which found her tied with Trump at 49%.

The vice president also led Trump by 15 points — 55% to 40% — with independents in the Keystone State. By comparison, Trump carried independents 49% to 45% in September.

Additionally, 63% of likely voters who have already cast ballots supported Harris, while a far smaller share, 35%, supported Trump. But among those who haven’t yet voted, Trump led Harris 54% to 44%.

The poll, which sampled 1,642 adults in the state, has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.

Wisconsin

In the Badger State, Harris again led Trump among likely voters by two points — 50% to 48%. One percent signaled they were undecided, and 1% said they supported a third party candidate.

By comparison, Harris led Trump 50% to 49% in September.

And, like in Pennsylvania, the vice president has an edge among independents, though here it is smaller, with Harris garnering 51% versus Trump’s 45%.

“This compares with the four-point edge she had in early September but still is well below the double-digit lead President Joe Biden (54%) had against Trump (42%) among independents in 2020,” according to the poll.

Harris also had an advantage among early voters. Fifty-seven percent of those who have already cast ballots supported Harris, while 43% supported Trump.

The former president, on the flip side, led Harris 53% to 45% among those who haven’t yet voted.

The poll, which sampled 1,549 adults in Wisconsin, has a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points.

Michigan

Of the three Blue Wall states, Harris had her largest lead in Michigan.

Fifty-one percent of likely voters said they supported her, while 48% said they favored Trump, marking a three-point difference. Meanwhile, 1% of likely voters said they supported a third party candidate.

Harris’ advantage among likely voters has decreased slightly from September, when she led Trump 52% to 47%.

In contrast, she has increased her lead among independents. Fifty-two percent of them now support Harris, while 46% support Trump, marking a six-point difference. In September, independents were more narrowly divided — with 49% backing Harris and 47% backing Trump.

And, like in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, the vice president outpaced Trump among early voters. Sixty-three percent of those who have already cast ballots supported Harris, while 59% of those who haven’t yet voted backed Trump.

The poll sampled 1,429 adults in the state and has a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points.

This story was originally published November 1, 2024 at 5:20 PM with the headline "Where do Trump and Harris stand in ‘blue wall’ states? Here’s what new polls reveal."