What do polls, early votes reveal about 2024 race in crucial swing state of Wisconsin?

Wisconsin — one of just several swing states— will likely play a pivotal role in the 2024 presidential election.

With its 10 electoral votes, it could help push former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris over the finish line.

Here’s what recent polls and early voting data reveal about the state of the race in The Badger State.

What polls show

Two separate polling averages indicate that — with just days before Election Day — Harris holds an extremely narrow lead over Trump in Wisconsin.

According to a polling average from FiveThirtyEight, an election analysis site, the vice president is leading in the state by a single point. And, according to an average compiled by Nate Silver, a prominent pollster, Trump and Harris are less than a point apart — garnering 48.5% to 47.8%, respectively.

Individual polls conducted over the past month have varied widely in their results, though.

For example, a CNN poll found Harris outpacing Trump by six points — 51% to 45% — among likely voters. The poll, conducted between Oct. 23 and 28, sampled 736 voters in the state and has a margin of error of 4.8 percentage points.

In contrast, a Marquette Law School poll indicated Harris’ lead was far narrower. Conducted between Oct. 16 and 24, the poll found her leading Trump 50% to 49% among likely voters in a two-way race. The poll sampled 834 registered voters and has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.

And, in contrast, an AtlasIntel survey fielded between Oct. 25 and 29 found Trump leading Harris by just half a point — 49% to 48.5%. Of the seven swing states included in the poll, Wisconsin tied North Carolina for having the tightest margin. The poll, which sampled 1,470 respondents in the state, has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

“The polls continue to show an extremely close race that could go either direction,” Barry Burden, a professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, told McClatchy News.

“The campaigns’ decisions about where to hold events indicate that they both believe Wisconsin is up for grabs,” Burden added. “Both Harris and Trump were in the state on Wednesday and both will be in the same city of Milwaukee on Friday.”

What early voting shows

As of Oct. 31, about 1.2 million early votes have been cast in Wisconsin — either in-person or through the mail, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab.

“This is amazing. It’s astonishing. It might be record-setting,” Mordecai Lee, an emeritus professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, told WISN. “You almost might call it a ‘tsunami of voters.’”

About 700,000 of the votes were submitted in-person, surpassing the in-person early vote turnout of the past two presidential elections, according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

Meanwhile, a smaller amount of votes — about 500,000 — were sent in via mail-in ballots.

So far, the largest number of early votes have come from Milwaukee County — which encompasses the city of Milwaukee and is the most populous in the state, according to the outlet.

In the first week of early voting, 75,000 votes were cast in the county, an increase from the roughly 55,000 cast during the same period in 2020, according to the Wisconsin State Journal.

As to how much election watchers should read into this data, it is hard to say, Burden said.

“It is difficult to know exactly what the early voting numbers portend about the final election results,” Burden said. “Compared to when the pandemic so radically altered voting in 2020, many voters are changing their methods of voting, especially shifting from voting by mail to voting early in person.”

If the past is any guide, the election in Wisconsin will come down to the wire.

“Wisconsin was decided by less than a percentage point in the past two presidential elections,” Burden said. “So 2024 could be another close one.”

This story was originally published October 31, 2024 at 5:29 PM with the headline "What do polls, early votes reveal about 2024 race in crucial swing state of Wisconsin?."