Ian threw ‘curve ball’ to Bradenton-Sarasota housing market. Here’s what experts say
Hurricane Ian’s path of destruction through Collier, Lee and Charlotte counties will likely take years to heal, and have consequences for the housing market in the Bradenton-Sarasota area.
In Lee County alone, more than 4,000 homes were destroyed and more than 44,000 suffered some type of damage, according to PBS station WGCU.
Many home owners and renters who lost their homes will be looking north to the Bradenton and Sarasota area, as well as to Tampa and St. Petersburg for replacement housing.
In addition, some home buyers and renters who were looking at Naples or Fort Myers before Ian, have turned their focus to the Bradenton-Sarasota area, which already faces an affordable housing crisis.
The added pressure could help drive costs even higher — or at least keep them high — just as increasing inventory and rising interest rates were beginning to moderate the surge in housing prices.
“We are in a flux market, trying to find balance, and then Ian comes along a throws a curve ball at it,” said Joanne Owens, founder/broker of Keller Williams on the Water.
Greg Owens, broker and operating principal of Keller Williams on the Water, said he has already had several inquiries from people who were originally planning to buy in the Naples-Fort Myers area.
The fallout from Ian will put pressure on housing inventory and the rental market, Greg Owens said.
Jon Mast, CEO of the Manatee-Sarasota Building Industry Association, said he expects that with so much rebuilding to be done in Lee and Collier counties, many will look north for new homes.
In Lee County, there are typically about 4,500 permits issued in a normal year for home construction, Mast said.
“Where do they go, and how long does it take?” he said of the rebuilding challenge.
With an expected influx of new residents from the south comes more competition for housing.
First-time buyers face increasingly higher hurdles, such as soaring prices and rising interest rates. ”Every time they raise interest rates, it knocks people out of the market,” Mast said.
Some who recently bought homes in Florida may be having second thoughts after the Category 4 storm came ashore in Southwest Florida, and decide to leave. But they will be offset by others who will want to come to the Sunshine State, Mast said.
“There are people who will move out of Florida, but I would bet there are four times as many moving in,” Mast said.
Florida’s more stringent building codes enacted after Hurricane Andrew devastated Homestead in 1992 means that newer homes are better built than those in the past to withstand hurricane force winds.
Mark Boehmig, a real estate agent with Michael Saunders & Company, said he expects to see people who lost their homes in Naples and Fort Myers moving to Bradenton, Sarasota and Lakewood Ranch.
“We do not feel like our market has been rattled by Ian,” he said. “Our prices are remaining pretty stable right now. We are not seeing a big decline.”
John Neal, president of Neal Land & Neighborhoods and developer of North River Ranch in Parrish, said he is already seeing interest in Manatee County from persons displaced by Ian.
“Especially from folks who had a seasonal home in the area affected by Ian,” Neal said.
“It’s sad what has taken place to the south. It will come back, but it will take some time,” he said.
This story was originally published October 20, 2022 at 12:11 PM.
