‘Above normal’ hurricane season predicted for 2017

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season looks as though it will be “above normal,” the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Thursday.

During a press conference in College Park, Md., acting NOAA administrator Ben Friedman predicted 11 to 17 tropical storms with average winds of 39 mph — with five to nine of those storms becoming hurricanes with average wind speeds of 74 mph, and two to four becoming major hurricanes at Category 3 or higher and wind speeds of at least 111 mph.

“As a reminder, our season outlook predicts a range of storm activity,” Friedman said. “It does not predict when, where and how these storms will hit and if they will make landfall.”

Representatives from the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the National Weather Service were also present for the announcement.

Mary Erickson, deputy director of NWS, said that with the help of new models and data since Hurricane Andrew 25 years ago, the accuracy of tracking storms three days in advance has improved by 65 percent. The public will also receive warnings for tropical disturbances, in addition to notifications for storm surge watches and warnings.

Something that couldn’t be stressed enough: Prepare.

“We cannot stop hurricanes, but again we can prepare for them,” Friedman said.

According to acting FEMA administrator Robert J. Fenton Jr., eight of the 10 most costly U.S. disasters have been hurricanes.

Last year, Hurricane Matthew caused $10 billion in damage, and took more than 40 lives in the U.S. and upwards of 1,000 in the Caribbean.

“The point is that just because it’s not a major hurricane, doesn’t mean it’s not dangerous, doesn’t mean it’s not deadly, doesn’t mean we don’t need to be prepared for it,” Friedman said.

It only takes one storm, Fenton said, and complacency is not an option. He suggests the following:

• Create a family plan. Include where you will go, how you will go and how you will communicate. Be sure to include pets.
• Know your evacuation zone and route. Manatee County Government recently updated their maps, which includes zones, routes and shelters.
• Prepare a hurricane kit with food, cash and medicine. Be sure to have a way to charge your phone in case the power goes out.
• Buy flood insurance. “The time to buy is when it’s dry,” Fenton said.
• Keep up with local emergency managers. Manatee County Public Safety announces evacuations and important information.
• Install the FEMA app for checklists, threats to your area and a map of shelters.
• Check on your neighbors before and after a weather event.

Jerry Bell, the lead seasonal hurricane forecaster for NOAA, said the warmer-than-average temperatures this year didn’t play any factor in the prediction, although Tropical Storm Arlene formed in April.

“Winter and spring conditions don’t have impact on summer patterns,” he said.

If an El Niño or La Niña had persisted through spring and summer, that would have had an effect on what the season looks like.

This story was originally published May 25, 2017 at 12:48 PM with the headline "‘Above normal’ hurricane season predicted for 2017."