How busy will hurricane season be this year? NOAA predicts ‘above average’ with 6 to 10
The Atlantic is in for another active hurricane season, according to the newly released NOAA forecast.
On Tuesday, NOAA released its forecast for the 2022 season: 14 to 21 named storms, 6 to 10 of which will grow into hurricanes and 3 to 6 that will develop into major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher. NOAA predicted a 65% likelihood of the seventh consecutive “above-average” season.
NOAA’s standard for an average hurricane season, which was revised higher last year, is 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
The agency believes this season will be active because of warmer than average sea surface temperatures, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, a stronger West African Monsoon season and a La Niña, an atmospheric phenomenon that leads to a stronger hurricane season.
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However, long-term trends like climate change may also affect storm season. Research suggests that as the planet warms, storms of the future will have more storm surge and be slower and more powerful, although there will likely be fewer of them.
Rick Spinrad, the administrator of NOAA, said that although it’s impossible to directly say that climate change caused a specific storm, patterns can be seen over time.
NOAA’s new forecast came in lower than the early season forecast from Colorado State University, which called for 19 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes.
Last year saw 21 named storms, which used up every name on the list for the second year in a row. If this season runs on the high end of NOAA’s prediction, it could happen a third time.
But unlike 2020 and 2005, when forecasters turned to the Greek alphabet for bonus storm names, the National Hurricane Center will now use a backup list of regular storm names.
Of the seven hurricanes last year, the deadliest in the U.S. was Hurricane Ida, a Category 4 storm that crashed into Louisiana almost 16 years to the day after Hurricane Katrina struck. The storm kept moving toward the Northeast, causing deadly flooding that drowned people in their cars and homes. The World Meteorological Organization retired the storm name this year.
If the Atlantic stays quiet for the next few days, this could be the first season in eight years where a named storm didn’t form before the official June 1 start date.
At the news conference announcing NOAA’s outlook, FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell urged people to stock up on hurricane supplies and stay tuned in to announcements from local emergency management officials.
“My question for the public is: Are you ready?” she said. “The time to get ready is now.”
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This story was originally published May 24, 2022 at 11:25 AM with the headline "How busy will hurricane season be this year? NOAA predicts ‘above average’ with 6 to 10."
