Elsa forecast to bring storm surge to Manatee County. Here is where it could be the worst
Manatee County could see the worst of Hurricane Elsa’s storm surge along beaches on Anna Maria Island and Longboat Key.
As of 11 p.m Tuesday, Elsa was about 65 miles southwest miles of Tampa and 125 miles south of Cedar Key, with sustained winds of 75 mph, the threshold to be considered a category 1 hurricane. It was moving to the north at 14 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.
All coastal areas in Manatee County are under a storm surge warning, with a surge of 3 to 5 feet above ground level causing flooding in areas from Englewood to the Aucilla River in Florida’s Big Bend, according to the National Hurricane Center. The highest surge locally is expected along area beaches.
Storm surge will be the highest in areas on Florida’s west coast when the peak coincides with the Wednesday morning high tide. High tide along Anna Maria is forecast for 9:45 a.m., several hours after the worst of the storm is expected to have passed.
Manatee County should see the most severe weather around 2 a.m., when sustained winds are predicted to reach up 34 mph, with gusts of 45 mph., according to the National Weather Service Tampa Bay.
“We will see a little bit of a negative surge sometime this morning or this afternoon,” NWS meteorologist Stephen Shiveley said Tuesday morning. “Once it gets parallel or north of Manatee County, probably around 8 p.m., that is when you are going to start to see the storm surge come in.”
Negative storm surge occurs when a storm approaches from south. Because tropical storms in the Northern Hemisphere spin counter-clockwise, as the storm moves up the coast, water gets pulled out. When the center of the storm passes parallel to an area and winds shift direction on the backside of the storm, the water gets pushed back in and will begin to rise.
The negative storm surge is not expected to be anything like what was seen ahead of the arrival of Hurricane Irma in 2017, when large parts of Tampa and Sarasota bays were left dry, leaving manatees and other marine life stranded.
This story was originally published July 6, 2021 at 1:08 PM.
