How will Manatee’s growth change its voting districts? Here’s the latest from the county
An example of how Manatee County’s five districts could change has raised questions about which approach officials will take when they approve the updated boundary lines.
The Board of County Commissioners recently hired a consultant to aid in the redistricting process that is mandated by Florida law. Using population data from the 2020 U.S. Census, county officials must modify their five voting districts to include roughly the same number of residents.
In their first meeting Wednesday with John Guthrie, the hired redistricting consultant, he shared that Districts 1 and 5 — which cover the eastern parts of the county where development has skyrocketed — will need to shrink in order to maintain a balance.
County Attorney Bill Clague and Guthrie highlighted that key considerations have to be made for District 2, the only district in the county with significant minority representation. The district — made up of parts of Bradenton, Palmetto and Ellenton — has a 21% Black and 29% Hispanic population, according to census data.
“If we were to make substantial changes in those that were avoidable, that might create an issue with voting rights considerations,” Guthrie said.
As they adjust their maps, commissioners have to make a “good faith effort” to comply with the federal Voting Rights Act, which prevents officials from limiting a minority group’s ability to elect representation.
Consultant demonstration shows possible approach
Guthrie created an unofficial example of what the new districts might look like, showing commissioners the new boundaries that shrink District 1 and 5 while expanding the other three districts to the north and to the east.
“I’m not calling this a draft or a plan, it’s really just a simulation and showing you an approach that could be taken to refashion or remodel the Manatee County Districts in order to equalize population,” Guthrie said.
Commissioners and residents still had questions about the example district model. Both groups recommended that Guthrie provide a methodology for how the boundary lines were drawn. They also suggested limiting boundary lines to major roads or geographic features, such as the county’s major rivers.
Another public meeting will be held on Nov. 9 to discuss preliminary maps that Guthrie will provide. Ahead of that meeting, commissioners will be able to meet with him and share their map preferences. After the discussion on Nov. 9, the board expects to move forward with a handful of maps for further discussion.
“My job here is to listen to you, take your direction and provide what technical information based on my experience that I can, but really, at the end of the day, these will be your districts,” Guthrie told the board. “Districts are a personal matter. I understand that, and I plan to have very big ears throughout this process so that I can not only follow the law but listen to and hear the direction the commission would like to go.”
Commissioner Reggie Bellamy suggested posting those maps in county libraries and other community centers to engage residents in the process. Those maps should also include population demographics, he said.
Will some districts need to be under populated?
The county’s redistricting process will generally aim to include about 80,000 residents in each of the five districts, but federal protections and growth predictions could lead commissioners to under-populate some of them.
Guthrie explained that his simulation limited District 2 to 76,000 residents in an effort to prevent the “dilution” of the minority population. Expanding the district in either direction could weaken voters’ ability to secure minority representation.
Commissioners may also choose to include fewer residents in Districts 1 and 5, which include Parrish and Lakewood Ranch. The number of homes that have been approved in that part of the county suggests that more residents are coming soon.
“It’s fair to say we have two districts that are extremely populated,” said Commissioner Vanessa Baugh, who represents District 5. “Should we not have District 1 and District 5 have a little less population if we know that in six months they’re going to be over it anyway? It seems like we’re defeating the purpose.”
According to Guthrie, population trends are an “extraordinary basis” that the board can use to justify under-populating a district. County Administrator Scott Hopes said he can provide data to support that prediction.
“We’re in the neighborhood of 50,000 new homes approved for construction, and it’s predominantly in District 1 and District 5,” Hopes explained. “I can have the Planning Department give an estimate of those households and their ETAs to be incorporated into the calculations.”
“We’re recognized as the fastest-growing community in Florida. I think under-populating District 5 and District 1 is smart because we’re not going to do this again for another 10 years,” Commissioner Carol Whitmore added.
What happens next for Manatee County?
While the county plans to hold several more meetings to discuss the maps, as well as public hearings on the final candidate for new boundary lines, residents were critical of the process at Wednesday’s special meeting.
“No one’s going to be happy when they leave here. The public can’t see the maps, they can’t see the numbers. It’s confusing to me what’s happening with these districts,” said former Commissioner Charles Smith, who is running for Bellamy’s District 2 seat in 2022. “You’ve got to start with a better process than I see now. We can’t see the maps. We need clear boundaries so people aren’t confused when they vote.”
Commissioner George Kruse pushed back on the criticism, noting that all of the work toward redistricting the county has been done in public. He also urged District 2 residents to accept that their district will need to expand.
“We’re showing you the raw data and how we’re getting these maps,” Kruse said. “Manatee County has grown 50% in the past 20 years.”
“How long do we go without expanding (District 2) past 70,000 people? It’s just not practical,” he added. “This is a very well-thought-out plan to make sure we honor the integrity of the district. We’re doing our part and we’re cognizant of District 2.”
How to attend the next meeting
Guthrie said he plans to have maps available for the commission to discuss during a special public meeting on Nov. 9.
The discussion will begin at 9 a.m. at the county administration building, 1112 Manatee Ave. W. in downtown Bradenton.
This story was originally published October 29, 2021 at 7:00 AM.
