Buchanan holds 9-point lead over Shapiro in poll. Voters say incumbent is better on red tide

A new survey of likely voters shows Republican U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan with a nine-point lead over Democratic challenger David Shapiro to represent Florida’s 16th Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives.

According to the University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab, 49 percent of likely voters planned to vote for Buchanan. Meanwhile, 40 percent intended to vote for Shapiro. Eleven percent of likely voters were not sure who they would vote for, the poll, released Thursday, reports.

The margin of error for the poll was plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

“Voters in Southwest Florida know that when it comes to addressing red tide or fighting to protect Medicare and Social Security, they have a champion in Vern Buchanan,” said Max Goodman, Buchanan’s campaign manager, in a news release.

Those polled told UNF the environment (22 percent) is the most important problem in District 16, and 40 percent said they thought Buchanan would do a “better job” with issues such as red tide. Thirty-seven percent said Shapiro would do the job better.

“The red tide is impacting a lot of the Florida coast, perhaps nowhere more than this area,” said Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF “Voters are concerned. This issue is on their minds and driving their votes.”

Other problems cited by respondents were health care (18 percent) and immigration (17 percent).

There were 551 telephone surveys completed of likely voters in the district between Sept. 30 and Oct 2. Those who said they would definitely or probably vote were used in the survey; of them, 47 percent were Republicans and 33 percent were Democrats, according to a news release on the poll.

In 2016, Buchanan won the election by nearly 20 points in what Binder called a “historically strong Republican district.”

“So the fact that this race is within shouting distance for Democrats should give Republicans real concerns when it comes to keeping control of the House of Representatives,” Binder said in a news release.

In a typically Republican district, the survey also asked likely voters if they approved of the job President Donald Trump was doing, to which 54 percent said yes.

Among likely-to-vote Republicans polled, eight percent said they would vote for Shapiro, while seven percent of polled likely Democrat voters said they would vote for Buchanan.

In an August poll paid for by the Shapiro campaign, Anzalone Liszt Grove Research concluded the race was much closer, determining Buchanan held a four-point lead over Shapiro, with 48 percent of voter support.

A St. Pete Polls survey, commissioned by Florida Politics showed Buchanan had 44 percent of voter support in late July, leading Shapiro by 10 points, according to Florida Politics.

The 16th Congressional District, which Buchanan has represented since 2007, includes all of Manatee and parts of Sarasota and Hillsborough counties.

This story was originally published October 4, 2018 at 12:11 PM with the headline "Buchanan holds 9-point lead over Shapiro in poll. Voters say incumbent is better on red tide."