Pollster says Shapiro has a shot at knocking off Buchanan. But does he really?

Hot on the heels of winning the Democratic nomination in Tuesday’s primary election, the David Shapiro campaign has released a poll suggesting that he has a decent shot of unseating Rep. Vern Buchanan in November.

After speaking with 400 likely voters in Florida’s 16th Congressional District in a poll paid for by the Shapiro campaign, Anzalone Liszt Grove Research concluded that the race is neck and neck. Their initial poll determined that Buchanan held a four point lead over Shapiro, with 48 percent of voter support.

But the poll suggests that the Democrat holds a 22-point lead over six-term congressman Buchanan with voters without a party affiliation and a 7-point lead with independent voters. The two candidates have been anxious to get at one another in the weeks leading up to the primary.

Their direct contest became official when Shapiro defeated Jan Schneider, who has run for Congress six times but has never been elected, with 55 percent of the vote. Buchanan’s campaign manager Max Goodman said the result of that race was “embarrassing” for the Shapiro campaign, which outspent Schneider by hundreds of thousands of dollars.

The poll results grew tighter as voters were informed by candidate biographies that were devoid of any negative language. Buchanan was described as a “self-made businessman,” “an independent leader” and a “champion for small business.” Shapiro’s bio said he will “stand up for our veterans,” “work across party lines” and “protect our way of life by fighting environmental disasters.”

That information brought Shapiro within one point of Buchanan, with 4 percent of the respondents still undecided, according to ALG Research, but Goodman isn’t convinced. He argued that Shapiro couldn’t possibly shrink the gap by that much when he didn’t manage to defeat his primary opponent by more than 20 percentage points.

“Obviously it’s a bogus push poll. If Shapiro could barely beat a no-show candidate in the Democrat primary last night after outspending her 50 to 1, he sure isn’t within striking distance of Vern,” Goodman said. “The fact that he would release a phony poll after such a poor showing shows just how demoralized and panicked he is.”

In an interview with the Bradenton Herald Tuesday night, Shapiro stated the opposite. Starting Wednesday morning, he planned to get back on the campaign trail and increase the tempo. The poll results are proof that he and his staff are running an effective campaign, he said.

“I’m extremely proud of our people-powered campaign,” Shapiro said. “Our story of fighting for Florida families and against government incompetence, big insurance and pharmaceutical companies is resonating with voters, and this poll shows that people are ready to bring some change to Washington.”

Shapiro’s campaign has earned national attention from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and its Red to Blue program because of his demonstrated viability as a candidate. But if that were to waver, so could the support.

According to the Federal Election Commission, his campaign spent about 52 times as much money as Schneider’s campaign — $865,500 compared to Schneider’s $16,500.

ALG notes that Buchanan’s campaign has spent about $1 million on cable and broadcast advertisements since April, while Shapiro’s campaign only launched its own television ads in August and has spent less than $400,000. Floridians For a Fair Shake, a dark money nonprofit group, began running ads against Buchanan in June, however.

The release of the poll just one day after the primary is evidence of a push to spark Democratic interest in Shapiro just as the general election season kicks off. The Sarasota candidate won big in his home county but squeaked past his opponent in Manatee and lost Hillsborough to Schneider by a slim margin of 20 votes.

Going forward, Shapiro has said that he plans to address Buchanan’s 12-year voting record in his fight for a congressional seat. National pollsters have predicted that the Republican-leaning district may flip to Democrats following Rep. Margaret Good’s upset victory in February.

“This is a prime opportunity for Democrats to help replace an entrenched Washington-insider with a common sense, independent leader,” said ALG’s report.

This story was originally published August 29, 2018 at 2:01 PM.