Some days are better than others but red tide persists off Anna Maria Island

The current red tide algae bloom along the west coast of Florida is about to turn one-year old and it’s impact on Anna Maria Island and the rest of Manatee County stretches past the two-month mark.

It’s a long time to go without seeing the typical blues of the Gulf of Mexico lapping the beaches but that doesn’t mean there hasn’t been some great beach days along the way. Wednesday was one of those days as an offshore breeze swept some of the now familiar odors associated with red tide out to sea.

Several dozen people were at Manatee Public Beach in Holmes Beach, but none were in the water.

Al and Janice Rybicki visit the island from Massachusetts every year. They were enjoying what is usually a much more crowded beach, “But we had to drive to Marco Island to swim,” said Al Rybicki. “There’s not a lot of people here, but where do you go? It’s affecting both coasts now and it’s not just Florida. We had some red tide up north but you don’t hear about it even though it’s beaching whales and killing sharks.”

Rybicki said the good news is that they’ve seen an improvement in the final days of their vacation, which is what brought them back out to the beach on Wednesday, but predicting beach conditions has been frustrating. The Rybickis aren’t the only ones frustrated by the lack of an ability to predict red tide, though that is now the primary focus for scientists.

The Florida Fish and Wildlife Commission reported Wednesday that the amount of red tide in waters off Manatee, Sarasota, Charlotte, Lee and Collier counties continues to decline, “creating patchier bloom conditions along the coast.” More areas of the county’s coastline appear to be dropping into the “medium” category, though high-level areas remain.

“Forecasts by the USF-FWC Collaboration for Prediction of Red Tides for Pinellas to northern Monroe counties predict northwestern transport of surface waters and net southeastern movement of subsurface waters for most areas over the next three days,” FWC said.

Red tide remains just as unpredictable and frustrating as when it arrived in August off the coast of Anna Maria Island. It continues to affect 130 miles of shorelines between Collier and Pinellas counties with intensity levels ebbing and flowing like the very tide that carries the Karenia brevis, the organism responsible for everyone’s uncertainty.

Local businesses continue to suffer, though the community has rallied in local efforts to support island businesses through the rough times.

“The general trend over the last part of September has been generally declines in Southwest Florida with respect to the number of K. brevis cells,” said John Berry, associate professor of chemistry and biochemistry at Florida International University.

That is a bit of good news considering September and October is typically when red tide can intensify. However, while Manatee County beaches have seen the decline in the amount of cells present, there remains enough to keep local beaches in the high category, with more than one million cells per liter.

Cell counts vary among the impacted areas of the Gulf Coast and seem to be getting more intense in the northern counties.

“That said, they are now seeing — alongside declines in Southwest Florida — increase in cell counts in the panhandle where levels have been largely medium at the highest and mostly low to undetectable, which might imply movement northward, and perhaps corresponding dissipation in South Florida,” Berry said.

Red tide remains a health hazard on local beaches for many who are susceptible to respiratory illnesses, but green flags are flying, indicating it’s OK to swim — but at your own risk.

“The high cell counts of K. brevis can easily get you into concentrations of toxin in the water, and when aerosolized into the air, which corresponds to human health effects, as well as, of course, effects on fish and (marine) wildlife,” Berry noted.

Red tide’s apparent shift to the north in intensity makes sense to Suzanne Wiley who works the visitor information desk at Manatee Public Beach.

“It seems to be getting better here but when I went up to Tampa, it was awful,” Wiley said, noting some good news in that business seems to be picking up slightly, especially on the weekends. Wiley said the first questions she gets from about 50 percent of those who stop by her desk is about red tide, but there’s still plenty of questions about local restaurants and things to do.

As red tide began to decimate fish and other marine wildlife in August, predictions of how long it would last were met with “We should worry,” from FIU scientists like Jose Eirin-Lopez and Mote Marine scientist Vincent Lovko, who noted in August, “The overall perception is that it’s getting worse worldwide.”

Red tide this week was detected in the Atlantic Ocean off of Palm Beach County, probably taken there by ocean currents moving from the Gulf of Mexico. Officials were testing if it had spread southward toward Broward and Miami-Dade counties.

So where’s it going next? How much longer will Manatee County endure its presence? How bad will it be in the future? Is it really declining in Manatee County?

No one really knows yet.

“Frankly, whether this is simply an ebb, or a true decline is something I would not be confident in predicting,” Berry said. “We would, however, generally expect to see annual declines as we head into fall and winter, but when this will happen, I think is certainly something beyond my predicative abilities.”

The scientific team at Mote Marine agrees.

“Although red tide blooms can initiate or persist during anytime of the year, historically, we have seen blooms manifest along the coast during late summer or early fall. If conditions continue to be favorable, we could continue to see the bloom persist,” said Stephannie Kettle, Mote public relations manage.

Scientists continue to take advantage of the prolonged outbreak to collect data, “to help us better understand and answer questions regarding the formation and persistence of Florida red tide,” Kettle said.

In late August, there were some concerns when the naturally occurring Trichodesmium, sometimes called a brown tide, appeared offshore of Manatee County. Brown tide is developed from a separate species and instead of feeding on nitrogens like red tide does, “fixes nitrogen” which can help sustain red tide.

Mote scientists say there have been no further updates, but confirmed that if Trichodesmium is offshore, that it is typical this time of year and would aid in prolonging the life of red tide. Trichodesmium has not been reported in recent Florida Fish and Wildlife Commission bi-weekly reports, which is a positive sign.

At Coquina Beach in Bradenton Beach, there were also several dozen people on the beaches and more than a few were strolling into the water hunting for shells. Vince Pallazola, from Massachusetts, said he didn’t know about red tide until he arrived in Florida. He and his wife come every year. The couple acknowledged some breathing issues their first couple of days, but said it’s getting much better.

“We’ve seen a lot of improvement in the last few days,” Pallazola said.

Asked if it was still worth the trip or if they would recommend coming to the island to family and friends even with the red tide struggles, the couple didn’t hesitate and almost in unison said, “Absolutely, come on down.”

This story was originally published October 3, 2018 at 2:32 PM.