ConocoPhillips CEO sounds alarm on a growing oil problem

Venezuela wants the world's largest oil companies to help rebuild an industry that once made it one of the most important crude producers in the Western Hemisphere.

ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance just made clear that the country still has a major credibility problem with at least one oil giant.

Lance said Venezuela's early steps to bring foreign producers back into the country are not enough to justify a major investment push, according to World Oil, which cited a Bloomberg interview.

The ConocoPhillips chief reportedly said the country has a "long ways to go," and added that a government take near 95% "will not do."

That is a blunt message from a company with a deep history in Venezuela. It also shows why a policy opening from Washington and a production rebound inside Venezuela may not be enough to bring global energy companies rushing back.

Venezuela is opening the door to oil companies again

The U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control gave companies a new path to at least start conversations.

In February, OFAC issued Venezuela-related General License 49, which authorizes negotiations and contingent contracts for certain investments in Venezuela, along with General License 50, which authorizes certain oil and gas sector transactions for specific entities.

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Venezuela's oil industry has already started to show signs of a modest recovery. Reuters reported that the country's production, including condensate and gas liquids, reached 1.1 million barrels per day in March, up from 942,000 barrels per day in January, according to a government presentation citing state oil company PDVSA.

For Venezuela, those numbers can help sell the idea that foreign capital could accelerate a comeback. For companies like ConocoPhillips, the numbers also raise a harder question.

A production recovery is one thing, but a long-term investment case requires contracts that protect capital, economics that justify risk, and a legal framework that companies believe will hold through the next political cycle.

ConocoPhillips has already been burned in Venezuela

ConocoPhillips does not have to look far for a reason to be cautious. In 2007, Venezuela expropriated ConocoPhillips' interests in the Hamaca and Petrozuata heavy crude projects, along with the offshore Corocoro development project, after the company had helped develop those assets under an earlier fiscal framework.

The legal battle that followed lasted for years and produced a massive award. In 2019, ConocoPhillips said an ICSID tribunal ordered Venezuela to pay $8.7 billion in compensation, plus interest, after ruling that the expropriation violated international law. The company also pointed to a separate ICC award of roughly $2 billion against PDVSA and two subsidiaries tied to the Hamaca and Petrozuata projects.

That history gives Lance's latest comments more weight. ConocoPhillips is not merely evaluating Venezuela as a potential growth market. It is looking at a country where it lost major assets, spent years fighting for compensation, and still has collection risk tied to past government actions.

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The oil opportunity remains complicated

The potential upside is still easy to understand. Venezuela has oil in the ground, existing industry infrastructure, and a government that wants foreign companies to help rebuild output. The recent OFAC licenses also create a framework that could allow companies to explore deals, subject to the limits and conditions attached to U.S. sanctions policy.

ConocoPhillips, however, is already running a large global portfolio without needing to lean on Venezuela for its near-term story.

The company guided for 2026 production of 2.33 million to 2.36 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, while also forecasting about $12 billion in capital expenditures and a plan to return 45% of cash from operations to shareholders.

That gives the company room to be selective. Lance's comments suggest that ConocoPhillips would need more than an invitation and better headline production numbers before it considers putting fresh capital at risk in Venezuela.

The bigger issue for investors is whether Venezuela can turn its opening into bankable contracts. If the economics still leave companies with too little upside and too much political risk, major oil producers may decide the country's reserves are worth watching from a distance.

Related: Morgan Stanley cuts to chase on Chevron, oil stock prices

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This story was originally published May 23, 2026 at 2:03 AM.