Scary unemployment forecast for Bradenton-Sarasota could be right on target, experts say
The Bradenton-Sarasota-North Port area could see 28 percent of its workforce — about 104,000 people — become unemployed during the coronavirus pandemic.
That is the projection of the MoneyGeek website, which is tracking coronavirus statistics around the country to visualize the economic impact on employment on the regional, state, and national levels.
Those statistics don’t seem far-fetched to James Curran, former dean of the College of Business, at USF Sarasota-Manatee, or to Mike Snipes, economics instructor at USF Sarasota-Manatee.
“Sadly, this could be a realistic forecast for a short time. It is hard to determine how they arrived at that figure, but it is possible,” Curran wrote in an email. “Our area is so heavily reliant on the hospitality industry and that is being hit incredibly hard by the pandemic. If hotels, resorts, restaurants, theaters and recreation are all shut down, there is going to be heavy unemployment.
There were 2,745 unemployment claims filed in Manatee County for the week ending April 4, according to the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity.
“Once the pandemic passes, it is likely going to take some time to build up consumer confidence that they can safely start going back to bars, restaurants, travel and some other activities. That confidence will come back and people will be anxious for a return to normal life, but I expect that people will be cautious for at least a while. A reliable treatment for COVID-19 will help immensely,” Curran said.
Snipes says he believes the forecast is probably accurate, given the fact that the Bradenton-Sarasota area is so heavily dependent on tourism.
In previous downturns, visitors with money could still travel freely. That is not possible when most of the country has been asked to stay home to flatten the curve on the spread of the disease.
“Our unique economy no longer shelters us. Our unique economy is now a detriment, rather than a help,” Snipes said.
In previous downturns, including the Great Recession of 2008, and the Great Depression that started in 1929, the country’s economy was essentially broken.
“That’s not what happened here. The economy is not broken,” Snipes said. “Once we get a vaccine, it could come back quickly.”
Many of the provisions of the federal stimulus packages were intended to help the economy make a rapid rebound, he said.
“It is going to be bad for as much as year, but there is nothing structurally wrong with the economy,” he said.
Jacki Dezelski, president and CEO of the Manatee Chamber of Commerce, called the projections sobering and startling.
But there is unanimity across businesses, policy-makers, and support organizations that reemployment will be the priority as it becomes safe to reopen businesses, Dezelski said in an email.
“There will be both short-term and long-term strategies aimed at turning the job losses around as quickly and smartly as possible. As PPP funds, and other financial assistance programs, are delivered to businesses here in the Manatee-Sarasota region, you will see more businesses able to maintain and even rehire employees. Policy-makers at all levels are continuing to explore additional assistance for employers, employees and laid-off workers,” Dezelski said.
Exacerbating the unemployment situation in Florida was the fact that the state claims system was over-whelmed and essentially broken as economic conditions deteriorated.
As Gary Berblinger of Bradenton found when he filed an unemployment claim for the first time in his 54-year work career.
“On March 20, I filled out my application. It took about 2 1/2 hours and I got kicked off the system 18 times,” Berblinger said.
On Wednesday, he attempted to log onto his claim file and received a message that the site was closed while the state processes claims.
MoneyGeek aggregates data on confirmed coronavirus cases and unemployment numbers across the United States. To provide accurate information, MoneyGeek’s tracker updates every 10 minutes to share relevant coronavirus case data. Unemployment numbers, initial jobless claims, projections and timeline events are updated regularly.
This story was originally published April 15, 2020 at 2:43 PM.
