How will cold weather blast affect Gulf fishing? Past years give a hint
A few days before Halloween, water temperatures were at a nearly fishing perfect 79.2 degrees.
After our season’s first strong cold front, the water temperatures dropped to 75.3 degrees on Nov. 1. By week’s end, the water temperature was about 72.5 degrees before slowly starting to rise into a mild weekend.
These temperatures, taken 10 miles offshore at the Egmont Channel Entrance weather buoy, are the perfect distance offshore for one of the season’s most water temperature dependent fish on our coast, kingfish.
Kingfish arrived in force this year right around the time the temperature fell below 80 degrees. The toothy and speedy rocket-like fish have had anglers reels screaming over the past few weeks.
Anglers using freelined live bait and long shank hooks or wire leader, trolling spoons or plugs and other popular tactics have had good success on kingfish over nearshore structures and bait holding areas in the Gulf.
Along with kingfish have been their cousin spanish mackerel, as well as quite a high number of cobia and tripletail reported. But that is soon to change with potential record breaking temperatures on the horizon over the week ahead.
When a strong cold front passes across the Gulf Monday, it will be frigid. A few days of high temperatures below 70 degrees and nighttime temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s.
This will send water temperatures plummeting, and with it a possible early end to the great nearshore pelagic fishing we’ve had after water temperatures drop below 70 degrees within 10 miles. Normally kingfish season is good from Halloween until Thanksgiving time in the fall. For historical reference, in 2024 the Egmont buoy didn’t see water temperatures below 60 degrees until Dec. 1. In 2023, it was Nov. 29. 2022, Nov. 23.
This cold is not unprecedented, in 2021, water temperatures hovered right around 70 degrees from Nov. 9 until Nov. 27 when they reached 68 degrees and fell further in early December. That year was excellent nearshore fishing for bottom species like snapper, grouper and hogfish, but pelagics were gone quickly.
2020 was very mild with mid 70s water temperatures until after Dec. 6.
Anglers will need to adjust after this week. I expect to see water temperatures drop into the mid 60s offshore and low 60s inshore.
Bait will be scattered and fish will probably stage like it’s the middle of winter. That means transition away from the flats and to warmer waters inshore. Offshore, behind high winds and rough weather, fish will probably look for rockier bottom and bigger ledges.
If we return to warm temperatures, pelagics like the mackerel and kingfish may return for a brief bit. When water temperatures rise, fish switch into feeding mode. Water temperatures reaching the mid 70s again inshore will be fantastic fishing. It will make fish active, eating aggressively before each following front.
We may be in for a winter of volatile weather. It will mean some tough fishing days but also some great ones ahead. The few days before cold fronts in the fall offer some of the best and most aggressive fish feeding patterns possible.
This story was originally published November 9, 2025 at 11:28 AM.