How the El Niño weather pattern creates ‘funny’ fishing patterns in Gulf of Mexico

Fox 13’s Meteorologist Paul Dellegatto says we are in the midst of a strong El Niño pattern that will remain in place for the foreseeable future. In store could be a stormy winter and with it, funny things seem to happen in the Gulf of Mexico.

“Above normal rainfall (along with potential of severe weather) is expected this winter in Florida with El Niño conditions expected to persist into the spring,” Dellegatto wrote on social media. Stormy weather puts fish on the move and in an eating mood.

While Thanksgiving Day might have been cooler than weeks past, a few days before, I was able to venture offshore before strong winds set in. It was unseasonably warm and after loading up the livewell with bait at the Sunshine Skyway, my eyes were set west of Egmont Key around 15 miles to search for hogfish or snapper and the potential of a shallow water tuna.

But the venture was distracted early. While running out of Egmont Channel, thrashing fish and birds crashing the surface caught our attention. A closer look… tarpon? It was the week of Thanksgiving and it looked like late May with the middle of the crab flush in Tampa Bay.

There were probably 1,000 of the silver kings in the school that seemed to go for a half-mile or more along the edge of the sandbar. In an attempt to hook up with a late-season tarpon, we sat up tide and presented bait perfectly into them for a half-hour that they had no interest in. But the sight was amazing and set the tone for a day of odd occurrences ahead.

Heading west, we finally set up in about 55 feet of water to target hogfish on small ledges. A few porgies ate first and then a small hogfish came aboard before being released.

If you’ve ever hooked a hogfish, you know the bigger ones fight extremely hard. They pull and dig sideways, never making it easy. The problem with this was multiple sharks seemed to want the hooked hogfish more than we did. So not one, not two, but no less than seven times did sharks take the hogfish we had hooked and cut off the line, Hogball jig included.

After a few, we moved to heavier tackle to reel faster. Even then we saw the sharks below in the clean water eat one of the hogfish.

Reeling as fast as possible didn’t seem to help. The only option we had was to keep moving and the unfortunate shark encounters happened in five different spots. It was truly heartbreaking. We still managed eight keeper-sized of the tasty wrasse.

But the most interesting catch occurred on a flatline whitebait. At one of the spots in 51 feet of water, I saw a decent-sized mahi swim right by the boat. In tow was the line from our rod in its mouth, meaning it ate the bait and was swimming freely with it. I reeled tight and the mahi went airborne.

After about a 7-minute fight, the fast grower was caught. While they can be caught nearly worldwide, mahi aren’t known for being in the shallow Gulf much beyond summertime. It was a cool sight, and one I was surprised to see that we weren’t alone in. Other anglers have continued landing mahi catches throughout the fall.

If we end up in a stormy pattern with low-pressure systems, it could make for an interesting winter time on the Gulf. It will constantly put fish on the move and therefore feed more often.

I’ve had some amazing kingfishing days with the chance at a shallow-water tuna if temperatures stay above 70 degrees in the Gulf. The biggest problem might be finding a good weather window to sneak, as calm days may be few and far between.

This story was originally published November 26, 2023 at 5:50 AM.