10 things to ponder as the Tampa Bay Rays prepare for the World Series
They faced elimination on Oct. 9, and beat the Yankees 2-1.
They faced elimination again Saturday night, and beat the Astros 4-2.
The Rays have survived a regular season shortened by a pandemic, a showdown against the Yankees and the largest payroll in the game, then a historic comeback by the Astros in the American League Championship Series.
All that remains is the Los Angeles Dodgers and the World Series.
Here are 10 things to consider before Game 1 on Tuesday night.
Perspective, please
Do not get freaked out by the idea that the Dodgers had the best record in baseball in 2020.
They are a good team, no doubt about that. They may even be a great team. But the uniqueness of the 2020 schedule – with teams limited to their own divisions and the corresponding division in the other league – make it difficult to judge the quality of regular-season performance.
On top of that, having the best record in the regular season is not a precursor to postseason success.
In the past 10 years, the team with the best record has won the World Series three times, has finished runnerup twice and failed to reach the Fall Classic five times.
Tampa Bay’s big uh-oh, Part I
Since they acquired him in July of 2019, Nick Anderson has been worthy of every adjective you can imagine. Filthy? Lights-out? Shutdown? That was Nick Anderson. He was, quite possibly, the best reliever in baseball over that 15-month span.
Yet he’s been a different pitcher in this postseason. It’s gone a little unnoticed because, other than the Carlos Correa walkoff homer in Game 5, it hasn’t really cost the Rays. But his numbers are vastly different than they looked in the regular season.
In 37.2 innings with the Rays in the 2019-20 regular seasons, he had a 1.43 ERA. In 11.2 innings in this postseason, his ERA is 4.63. And it wasn’t just one bad outing that inflated his numbers. He’s given up runs in 5 of 7 appearances.
Yet that’s not even close to being the worst sign. His WHIP (walks and hits per inning) is a miniscule 0.584 in the regular season and 1.206 in the postseason. He’s also gone from striking out 16.03 batters per nine innings to just 4.65 in the postseason.
You would like to think it’s a slump or a fluke. But it could be a giant freaking warning sign.
The legend of Arozarena
The Randy Arozarena story is approaching mythical standards. Sure, part of it is the backstory of a Cuban defector whose Tampa Bay debut was delayed by coronarvirus. But Arozarena’s numbers are among the greatest in postseason history.
He is just four bases – or one home run – from breaking the all-time record for total bases in a single postseason. The record, admittedly, is warped because baseball’s postseason has more rounds than ever, but the point is still valid.
Among players with at least 50 plate appearances in a single postseason, you could make the case that Arozarena trails only Carlos Beltran (2004) and Barry Bonds (2002) in terms of offensive output. Beltran had an OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) of 1.557 and Bonds was at 1.559. Arozarena is next in line at 1.288, just ahead of Albert Pujols (1.286) in 2004.
Tampa Bay’s big uh-oh, Part II
This is not the first time Brandon Lowe has been in an extended slump. When he was first called up to the big leagues in 2018, Lowe went 3-for-33 (.091) over a span of more than two weeks. Earlier this season, he went 4-for-47 (.085) during a 14-game stretch.
The good news is that Lowe breaks out of slumps in big ways. He followed that 2018 cold streak by going 12-for-24 (.500) with three homers in the next 11 days. The 2020 slump immediately turned into an 18-for-53 (.340) stretch with four homers in 15 games.
It’s just impossible to tell when that switch will turn.
Looking for weaknesses
Just as you would expect from an Andrew Friedman team, the Dodgers are not particularly susceptible to one type of pitcher. Los Angeles hit better (.837 OPS) against right-handers than left-handers (.779), but it’s not the kind of difference you can exploit. It does, however, bode well for the idea of Yarbrough pitching in Game 4.
Pitching plans
Tampa Bay’s starting rotation comes into the World Series in excellent shape. Tyler Glasnow will have an extra day of rest before Game 1, and Blake Snell will take his normal turn in Game 2. Charlie Morton presumably will start Game 3 on five days of rest.
With off-days being re-introduced to the postseason after the nonstop LDS and LCS rounds, the Rays could use their big three to start six of the potential seven games. Ryan Yarbrough likely will start Game 4 unless something goes wrong and the Rays bring Glasnow back on short rest. The way it’s set up now, Morton would again be Tampa Bay’s pitcher for a possible Game 7.
The bad news is the Dodgers are also in decent shape. They likely will have Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler and Dustin May available for six starts, with either Julio Urias or Tony Gonsolin (or both) facing Yarbrough in Game 4.
Stable mates
Much has been made about Tampa Bay’s “stable” of relievers who throw 98 mph or harder, but the Dodgers have just as many flamethrowers on their staff. According to fangraphs.com, Los Angeles pitchers averaged 94.5 mph on their fastballs, which was fifth-best in the league. The Rays were a tick below at 94.4
After watching the Rays flail at breaking pitches in the Houston series, it may not be the worst thing in the world for Brandon Lowe, Willy Adames, Mike Zunino and Austin Meadows to see more fastballs.
Ballpark effects
You might think the Rays have a slight advantage in Globe Life Field because they’re used to playing on artificial turf (and it’s made by the same manufacturer as Tropicana Field) but there’s a pandemic-related caveat to that theory:
Though the Rangers are an American League team, the Rays have never played in the brand-new ballpark because teams did not go outside their geographical divisions in the 2020 regular season. The Dodgers, meanwhile, have already played 10 postseason games there.
Secret to success
It sounds simplistic, but it’s probably true: The only way the Rays win the World Series is if their pitchers carry them.
Obviously, that type of strategy would work for any team. Who doesn’t hope for great pitching in the playoffs? But it’s especially true for the Rays, who are not in Los Angeles’ class when it comes to hitting. The Dodgers have nine players who have hit 20 or more homers in an MLB season. The Rays have – check notes – four.
The bottom line is the Rays need to have low-scoring games. They simply will not outslug the Dodgers. When holding an opponent to three runs or less, the Rays are 7-0 in the postseason. But when they give up four runs or more, they are 2-5.
A not-so bold prediction
Kevin Kiermaier will have a viral video at some point during the World Series.
The combination of 8-foot high walls and the number of long balls being hit during this postseason increase the possibility that the Rays centerfielder will rob someone of a home run in the next nine days.
Cody Bellinger and Mookie Betts – who are both Gold Glove caliber talents themselves – have already gone over the fence for highlight-reel catches at Globe Life Field.