Tampa Bay Buccaneers kicker Roberto Aguayo will make for an interesting pre-season

Preseason NFL football is a good time to catch up on your sleep.

It’s especially true for the first and fourth games. The players you pay big money to see will make what amounts to a cameo appearance with most of the guys who will not make the final 53 man roster garnering most of the time on the field.

For the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the situation is different.

The Robert Aguayo countdown begins Thursday night with the Bucs preseason opener in Philadelphia.

It’s the start of something that will keep all of the Bucs’ exhibition games interesting and that should carry into the regular season.

The kicker is going to keep Jason Licht alert because the reputation of the Bucs’ GM is on the line.

The Bucs traded the 74th and 106th selections to Kansas City in exchange for the 59th pick (second round), which Licht used to select Aguayo.

This move was flawed for numerous reasons, though Licht may escape the Glazer guillotine if the FSU kicker exceeds what his history predicts. You don’t take a kicker in the second round, especially when there are so many holes to fill and lack of quality depth on the Bucs roster.

Licht justified the move by tossing out a narrative that doesn’t match the facts, not to mention Aguayo was the only kicker chosen in this year’s draft. It destroys his argument that someone would’ve taken Aguayo in the second round or at all. Licht said his evaluation was that Aguayo is the best kicker in the history of college football. That argument doesn’t have the data to support it.

A kickers main competition is with themselves and the weather. Aguayo has never attempted a kick in temperature of less than 50 degrees, which means he was always kicking in optimum temperature. Weather can play havoc with a kicker’s skill set and his mind, and Aguayo never had to deal with Mother Nature. Now that doesn’t mean Aguayo can’t perform under adverse conditions. But he never has, which makes justifying a second round pick for him more questionable.

The facts also do not support Licht’s best kicker in history argument.

Aguayo connected on 14 of 22 kicks from 40-plus yards in the last two years, and he was 1 for 3 on kicks 50-plus yards. Duke’s Ross Martin, who was signed as a free agent by the New York Jets, was 13 for 16 on kicks of 40-plus yards and 4 for 4 on kicks of 50-plus yards the last two years.

Multiple studies show that the football travels further in higher temperature and puts less stress on the kicker. What that means is that any perceived advantage Aguayo brings will be negated when kickers kick in Tampa. But it may put Aguayo at a disadvantage when he kicks in a cold-weather game. There will be times when he has to change his style in cold weather because the ball will not travel as far and that could cause problems.

One study (advancedfootballanalytics.com) showed a 52-yard attempt in moderate temperatures (51-60 degrees) can be expected to be successful about 55 percent of the time. But in temperatures at or below 30 degrees, they can be expected to be successful about 30 percent of the time, which is about the success rate of 57-yard attempts.

Wind is also a factor with speed and direction affecting accuracy. Licht’s evaluation in regards to Aguayo is similar to receiving a child’s report card with no grades.

It’s easier for all kickers to perform better in Florida than in a northern city, which is why having a great kicker in a warm climate could negate any advantage Aguayo might bring.

The NFL average field goal success rate in Tampa Bay is 75%.

Aguayo played in only four outdoor games north of the North Carolina State line and the results, though limited, were not encouraging. He missed 2 of 3: at Boston College (missed 42 yard field goal); at Louisville (missed 41 yard field goal), at Pittsburgh (0-0); at Boston College (made 40 yard field goal).

The teams the Bucs moved ahead of would’ve never taken a kicker at that point of the draft, and many of the stats of the second or third best kickers available were better than Aguayo’s.

This is not a knock on Aguayo or an attempt to question his ability to handle pressure. It’s more on Licht. Only he knows why he did what he did and in the end he will be judged by this move.

The truth may not surface for awhile. But one of these days if the Bucs make the playoffs, they will likely have to travel into the cold either at an NFC North or NFC East city.

It should make kicking interesting.

This story was originally published August 9, 2016 at 6:06 PM with the headline "Tampa Bay Buccaneers kicker Roberto Aguayo will make for an interesting pre-season."