FHSAA cultivates Kansas, Nebraska for playoff format proposal

Frank Beasley wasn’t employed by the FHSAA for long before the governing body of high school sports in Florida gave him a project. The state’s new director of athletics, who handles football administrative duties, and almost two decades of experience coaching in the state, would have to research a potential change to the playoff structure.

He started his new job last August and by the end of the month he was already full bore into his project. Surveys of 500 coaches and athletic directors around the state pointed to dissatisfaction with the state’s current playoff format. Independent conference were growing among the state’s smaller schools. Unbalanced districts were leading to early-round playoff blowouts among the state’s bigger schools. A one-win team from a three-school district could get in over a winning team from one of the state’s six- or seven-team behemoths.

“We need to keep up with the times and create some excitement with what we’re doing and how we’re operating,” Beasley said, “and we feel like this is a good system to do that.”

The basic structure is common across the country: Beat good teams, get more points than beating bad teams. Lose to good teams, get more points than losing to bad teams. A presentation to state coaches earlier during in June mentioned California, Colorado, Indiana, Kansas, Michigan, Mississippi and Nebraska as other states using a points-based, strength-of-schedule-oriented system. New Jersey, Virginia and Minnesota use similar systems, too.

Each state’s model varies, whether it’s by the number of teams qualifying for the playoffs, the points allocated for each type of win or loss, or the existence of automatic qualifying methods. As a result, Florida had plenty of models to study, and Beasley and other officials could pick and choose the elements they thought would best fit this state. What they came up can be reduced to the back of an unfolded napkin or fill multiple pages of a research paper.

The basics: Classes 5A-8A will still have four districts in each of the four regions with automatic berths going to the champions of each district. The four wild cards from each region will be determined through a point system, factoring strength of schedule. Classes 1A-4A will abandon the district system entirely, allowing teams to create their own schedules and qualify for the postseason through the same point system the larger classifications will use.

In the point system, kept as simple as possible, schools are grouped into four tiers based on their record at the end of the regular season. First-tier teams are those that finish with an .800 winning percentage or better. The second tier consists of teams whose win percentages fall between .600 and .799. Third tier ranges from .399 to .599, and fourth tier is those with a .399 win percentage or worse. A win against a first-tier team nets the victor 50 points. A win against a second-tier team is worth 45, a third-tier win nets 40 and a fourth-tier win is worth 35. Losses to each respective tier are worth 15 points fewer than a win to reward teams for testing themselves with a rigorous schedule. Teams earn bonus points for playing a team in a higher class, one point for each class difference with a maximum of four points. For example, Class 3A Cardinal Mooney would get two extra points for playing Class 5A Bayshore and four points for playing both Class 7A Lakewood Ranch or Class 8A Manatee.

The full proposal is available on the FHSAA website. Specifics about the scoring system can be found on page 3.

To find the basis of the proposed system, Beasley turned to the Midwest. In Kansas, he found a wrinkle he thought addressed one of Florida’s glaring needs. In Nebraska, he found the math to make a power ratings system work here. If the FHSAA’s current proposal is approved by its board of directors in November, it will have those two states to thank.

Kansas’ wrinkle

When Beasley looked at the differences in talent among Florida’s four smallest classifications, he concluded the FHSAA couldn’t keep dictating the grouping of schools with wildly different admission standards or athletic resources into districts. The current district structure, based largely on geography and school size, simply didn’t fit.

He had an idea he thought could address the problems, so he studied other state playoff formats to see if anyone had implemented his or a similar idea. He found Kansas.

This fall will be the first with a new system for the Kansas State High School Activities Association’s (KSHSAA) two largest classes. The 32-school classifications will be split into East and West and for the first time all 32 teams will make the postseason with seeding determined by a point system. Last year, the KSHSAA’s system was virtually the same as Florida’s. The 32 teams were divided into eight districts of four. The top two from each district advanced regardless of how their actual performances compared to other teams from their region. To combat imbalance, Kansas took formatting to its logical extreme by eliminating districts altogether.

The FHSAA’s current proposal flips Kansas’. In Florida, the four smallest classifications will play without districts. Not everyone will reach the postseason, but the 16 playoff teams from each region will be chosen strictly through a points system.

“We want to put control back in the schools’ hands,” Beasley said. “We want the schools to be able to control who they play.”

For the state’s smallest four classes, the FHSAA’s proposal would mean an open 10-game schedule. Teams aren’t placed in district and there are no district or regional standings based solely on win-loss record. Teams would be free to schedule whoever they like and a point system would, theoretically, keep undeserving teams out of the playoffs.

For the four largest classes, teams would remain in districts. The champion of each district would clinch a playoff berth. The point system would affect the seeding of the four district champions in each region and determine four wild cards from each region.

Once the district and number of playoff qualifiers was settled on, the next set of questions arose. How would a point system work? What type of wins of wins are worth how many points? And how many points can a team get if they don’t win at all?

Nebraska’s math

Before 2000, Nebraska’s playoff format was even more flawed than Florida’s current system. Schools were divided into districts, usually consisting of four teams, and only the winners would make the playoffs. Potential contenders with one slip-up had no chance at redemption, which left a number of quality teams watching the postseason.

As long as wild cards have been used in Nebraska, power points have determined the teams. Currently, the Nebraska School Activities Association (NSAA) splits teams into tiers based on win percentage at the end of the season — four tiers for the three largest classifications three for the smallest one. A win against a top-tier team earns the winner 50 points. A loss to one of those teams earns 36 points for the three largest classifications and 38 for the smallest one. Value decreases in intervals of three for the largest classes and five for the smallest.

The NSAA’s playoff format can be found on its website. The scoring system that inspired the FHSAA’s is detailed on page 29.

The NSAA’s math isn’t particularly scientific, but it is the product of more than 15 years of tinkering.

The FHSAA’s current proposal is similar: It uses a 15-point differential between wins and losses across the board. Beasley and his staff tested the proposed format with last year’s results and found the result satisfactory. Locally, the most notable change would’ve been Cardinal Mooney, which went 2-8 during the regular season, missing the playoffs. Most importantly, Beasley said, Nebraska gave him a model that is easy to explain.

“My coaches from my coaches advisory committee said, ‘Hey, that one is pretty easy to understand,’” Beasley said. “It works. It fits.”

This story was originally published August 4, 2016 at 9:19 PM with the headline "FHSAA cultivates Kansas, Nebraska for playoff format proposal."