The Case for Christian McCaffrey As Fantasy Football's Repeat RB1 Overall
Christian McCaffrey is a 30-year-old. He has 10 injuries in his NFL career, and per DraftShark's, he is listed as a "Very High Injury Risk." The former fantasy football RB1 overall carries a haul of risk. However, he also carries a haul of upside.
McCaffrey plays for the 49ers, who are the NFL's 3rd-ranked offense in the power ratings. The team shed off Brian Robinson Jr., and Jordan James backs up with rookie Kaelon Black. The role for McCaffrey appears to be one primed for a lot of work, again.
Entering the 2025 season, which raised many doubts about McCaffrey's trustworthiness, he proved the haters wrong. McCaffrey was drafted at an ADP of 10th overall in 2025. He went on to become the No. 1 fantasy football player in total points.
McCaffrey's 2025 season put out 1,202 rushing yards, 924 receiving yards, and 17 total touchdowns. Only two NFL players had more touchdowns than McCaffrey: Jonathan Taylor (20) and Jahmyr Gibbs (18).
Can Christian McCaffrey Be RB1 Overall in 2026?
The average total yards attained over an entire season by the fantasy football RB1: 1,988.
The expectation for the 49ers is that they will limit McCaffrey's touches. He will not carry an 80% load that Jonathan Taylor or Josh Jacobs might. The team has 3 capable backups in James, Black, and Isaac Guerendo. Our estimation has McCaffrey accounting for 50-60% of the 49ers' season-long estimated rushing yards.
Our current projections show the 49ers rushing for 110-115 yards per game as a team. That would project McCaffrey for 55-65 rushing yards per game, roughly 950-1,100 on the season. So, in our estimation, McCaffrey probably needs to nearly double that in receiving yards.
McCaffrey's target share in 2025 was about 24%, the most on the team. He had about 22% of the team's receiving yards on 9.1 yards per reception, not too explosive compared to the average pass-catcher, but also doing so in more of a screen-game approach.
He also played 567 passing snaps, which was the most on the team. Including the playoffs, that amounted to nearly 30 snaps per game or about 80% of the team's passing snaps.
McCaffrey really has minimal reason not to be as involved. While players like James and Black might cut into McCaffrey's snaps, they would do it more often in the run game. When passing the football, Kyle Shanahan will logically favor using McCaffrey, who is among the best pass-catching running backs in the NFL.
Our projections suggest that McCaffrey will have a downtick in receiving yards. It is due to the team's addition of Mike Evans and Christian Kirk and the expected health of Ricky Pearsall. Our projection has McCaffrey amounting to roughly 700 receiving yards.
In total, McCaffrey will finish with 1,700-1,800 total yards on the season, which is short of the RB1 yearly mark. However, he can chase in the touchdown department. That is where McCaffrey can retain RB1 status.
The average RB1 finisher has finished the season with around 18-19 touchdowns. McCaffrey had 17 in 2025, but remember, he wins in PPR formats, which means his 700-projected receiving yards might come on 60-80 receptions in total. In PPR formats, no one can match McCaffrey. In the touchdown department, he should remain to score in excess of 15 times.
There is no reason to expect McCaffrey to be the 49ers' goal-line back. They do not do a tush push like the Eagles. They do not QB-sneak Brock Purdy. It is McCaffrey running the ball for a team projected to score over 3 times per game on offense.
The touchdown output will be mildly volatile, but any score below 15 would only happen if McCaffrey got hurt. Of course, that is a risk for any player.
The fact is, McCaffrey will have enough successive volume to be the RB1 in fantasy football. His main competitors will include Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson. As of now, McCaffrey has an ADP of RB3.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com/onsi/fantasy as The Case for Christian McCaffrey As Fantasy Football's Repeat RB1 Overall.
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This story was originally published July 10, 2026 at 10:18 AM.