Dan Miller: The nomination process and the conventions

Since political parties are not part of our Constitution, there are no federal laws or regulations that affect how they operate or function. It is indeed a very strange and complicated process to select the nominees for our two major political parties.

Prior to the 1970s the process took place in the "smoke-filled rooms" and it was not very democratic. States are now required by party rules to have an open and transparent process, and states have either a primary, a caucus or convention.

Significantly fewer voters attend caucuses and conventions since they require voters to personally attend at a specific time and location. Liberal voters (Bernie Sanders supporters) dominate the Democrats' caucuses, and evangelical and very conservative, tea party voters (Ted Cruz supporters) attend the Republican caucuses and conventions.

Sanders and Cruz have earned most of their delegates with caucuses and conventions because of their highly motivated and politically active supporters. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, however, have done very well in primaries where millions of voters have participated.

The actual delegate selection process for Republicans is usually a separate process from the primary election, and the state parties set the rules. Many Republican delegates are selected at the Congressional District level, where once again the evangelical/very conservative Republicans dominate and Cruz has done very well. Cruz's strength at the local level has allowed him to earn more delegates than his proportion of votes in many states and more delegates that will support him after the first ballot.

While most Republican delegates are bound on at least the first ballot, some states allow for unbound delegates free to vote however they wish. The states decide how to handle the delegates of candidates who have suspended their campaigns. There are 16 states yet to hold their primaries, including New York, New Jersey and California, where Trump and Clinton are favored to win.

Clinton is currently heavily favored to win the Democrat nomination, and if she does well in Tuesday's New York primary she will be unstoppable. It will be critical for Clinton to do everything she can to secure Sanders's support since she needs his voters to support her in November, especially with men and with young voters. It is expected that Sanders will endorse Clinton at the convention and the party will be united.

The Republicans nomination, however, may not be decided until the convention in Cleveland. There are several scenarios on how a candidate gets the needed 1,237 delegates needed to win.

The first scenario is that Trump is short by about 100 delegates after the last primaries on June 7. This is when Trump can demonstrate his negotiating skills with the 150-plus unbound delegates and the 171 Marco Rubio delegates that may be available. It is my opinion this is the most likely scenario, and Trump will win on the first ballot.

Trump currently has 30 percent more primary votes than Cruz, and that margin is expected to grow with the large state primaries ahead, which are expected to favor Trump. It will be hard to argue that he hasn't earned the nomination.

The second scenario is that Trump would be denied the nomination on the first ballot, and Cruz wins on the second or third ballot when most delegates are free to vote however they wish. Cruz has been very effective at the grass-roots levels to get his supporters to be delegates. It is delegates that select the nominee and not the popular vote, and Cruz has been much better organized and focused on securing delegates.

There are two additional scenarios. First, that Trump could secure 1,237 bound delegates without needing any unbound delegates remains a slight possibility. A fourth, but unlikely scenario, is a brokered convention when John Kasich or someone else is selected.

If Trump wins on the first ballot, it is likely Cruz will reluctantly support him, though his enthusiasm level may not be high. To continue to oppose Trump at this stage would make a future run for president more difficult.

If Cruz wins the nomination on the second ballot, it is expected Trump would charge he stole the election and his supporters would walk out in protest. He would argue that he has received well over 2 million more votes than Cruz and over 300 more earned delegates than Cruz and that he should be the nominee. The Republican Party Convention would end as a disaster and a much divided Republican party.

When parties are divided after a convention, they are likely to lose. In 1964 with Barry Goldwater, 1976 with Gerald Ford, and 1992 with George H.W. Bush, there were divisive conventions and the Republican candidate lost the election.

The Democrats were divided in 1968 with Hubert Humphrey, in 1972 with George McGovern and 1980 with Jimmy Carter and they lost those elections.

Republican chances of winning in November are not high already, but a divided party will certainly doom their chances.

Dan Miller, a Republican, businessman and professor, represented Florida's 13th Congressional District from 1992-2002, which included most of Manatee County.

This story was originally published April 17, 2016 at 12:00 AM with the headline "Dan Miller: The nomination process and the conventions ."