Dan Miller: The Donald Trump phenomenon
Donald Trump is indeed a phenomenon who has defied explanation and baffled the observer. He has received over 7 million votes so far in the Republican primaries this year and will very likely be the Republican nominee for president.
Trump's strongest support initially was with white men without a college degree who are angry at the federal government and consider themselves as "American." However, with over 1 million votes in Florida alone, he certainly has a much broader base of support with the electorate.
The question is why Donald Trump has received so many votes and what explains this phenomenon. Below are nine factors that explain the Donald Trump phenomenon and how both political parties have missed their political significance.
1. The middle class is under great economic stress. The technology revolution has significantly reduced middle-class, blue-collar jobs over the past 25 years. Manufacturing jobs have been especially hard hit, and jobs in the newspaper industry, the Postal Service, banking, retailing and many other industries have been lost. Good-paying middle-class jobs not needing a college degree are fewer and their wages are stagnating.
2. We are in a global economy and trade agreements are central to our ability to compete in this global market. It is easy to demonize trade agreements, but these accords are necessary to open markets for American products and services, but there are winners and losers with trade agreements. The United States can't just build a wall around the country to prevent imports, but we can effectively compete in the global marketplace.
3. The Great Recession of 2008-2009 hurt the middle class very hard. The real estate bubble destroyed home equity and millions lost their jobs. The government bailed out banks, auto companies, and Wall Street but it appeared that nobody went to jail.
4. People feel that the money and the powerful control everything in Washington. The Koch brothers and George Soros can put millions into elections when the middle class feels irrelevant. Both parties raise about equal amounts, and billions are now spent on elections. Many people feel they have no political voice.
5. Washington is dysfunctional. Nothing seems to get done in Washington and the political parties hate each other there. Governing is not a pretty sight.
6. Another factor is concern about a changing America. Cultural values are changing and whites are becoming a minority. An example is that some people are irritated to push "1" in order to speak English when calling on the phone.
7. Elections didn't change things. In 2008 Obama was elected for hope and change, but the middle class did not see any change that helped them. In 2010 Republicans won control of the House and in 2014 they took control of the Senate, and still nothing gets done for the middle class.
8. The white middle class left the Democratic Party in the '70s and '80s as the party moved further left and focused on social issues and minorities.
9. The Republican Party became more conservative and appeared primarily focused on cutting spending, fighting abortion, and pursuing entitlement reform. The white middle class was not focused on these issues.
Now along comes Donald Trump as a true outsider and one who is not politically correct. He is an eclectic candidate who may not have a great grasp of the issues but can surely connect with the forgotten middle class. He supports Planned Parenthood on non-abortion funding, offending evangelical voters, and he opposes entitlement reform, offending fiscal conservatives.
These Trump supporters were called Reagan Democrats during the 1980s, and Bill Clinton could certainly feel their pain in the 1990s. In recent years they feel that neither party is addressing their concerns so the appeal of an outsider is great. They feel an outsider can't do any worse than the elected officials in charge in Washington.
While Donald Trump has appealed to a significant block of voters in Republican primaries, he faces enormous challenges winning the nomination and the November election. Seven months ago nobody thought Donald Trump would be the likely Republican nominee for president. The next seven months will certainly be interesting.
Dan Miller, a Republican, businessman and professor, represented Florida's 13th Congressional District from 1992-2002, honoring his pledge to serve only 10 years. During those years, Miller's district included all of Sarasota, DeSoto, and Hardee counties and most of Manatee County except for a small northern coastal and a small section of Charlotte County.
This story was originally published April 10, 2016 at 12:00 AM with the headline "Dan Miller: The Donald Trump phenomenon ."