Take hurricane precautions; storm season opens June 1

The official beginning of hurricane season lurks only days away, and here we are blessed with a decade free of any major storm. Hurricane preparedness seems almost quaint after such a long spell of quiet skies, but complacency still ranks as the enemy of survival.

Got an evacuation plan? Know where the nearest shelter is? What about pets? And family living elsewhere in the county? Is your home in a flood zone? Got a survival kit packed with food, water and more?

The early forecasts for hurricane season predict close to the average — a dozen named storms making landfall along the U.S. coastline or in the Caribbean. The odds of a major storm, defined as one with sustained winds of 111 mph or higher, slamming the United States are only 50 percent. So say the scientists at Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science, the bellwether of hurricane projections now in its 33rd year. The hurricane total does not include Alex, which formed in January — outside the normal June-through-November storm season.

The CSU team put the chances of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. East Coast — including peninsula Florida — at 30 percent, one percentage point lower than the average for the last century. On the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, that figure is 29 percent.

Furthermore, the university report stated that the current weakening of El Niño is likely to transition to either neutral or La Niña conditions by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. While the tropical Atlantic is relatively warm, the far North Atlantic is quite cold, the report states, making atmospheric conditions less conducive to hurricane formation and intensity.

How accurate is the CSU team? “We have correctly predicted by early April above- or below-average seasons in 27 out of 34 hindcast years (79%),” the report written by Philip J. Klotzbach states.

The Weather Channel expects the most active season since 2012 — with 14 named storms, eight hurricanes and three major storms hurricanes in the forecast.

None of this matters one iota. A single powerful storm striking a community — think Manatee County and neighboring environs — will wreak havoc. In 2004, Hurricane Charley ripped a chilling path of destruction through Punta Gorda and Arcadia.

The last hurricane to batter Florida came the following year, on Oct. 24, 2005, when Wilma made landfall. The storm turned out to be the most intense tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Atlantic basin. Part of the record-breaking 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, two other storms joined Wilma on the list of the six most intense Atlantic hurricanes ever — along with No. 4 Rita and No. 6 Katrina. Plus, Wilma was the 22nd storm, 13th hurricane, fourth Category 5 storm and second-most destructive hurricane of the 2005 season.

That can happen again. As with every hurricane season, coastal residents would be wise to recognize that just one hurricane making landfall locally makes for an active storm season. Just one. Like Hurricane Andrew, a catastrophic beast that crippled South Florida during the slow storm season of 1992. The Category 5 monster slammed into the Sunshine State in August as the first hurricane of that season and only the fourth tropical cyclone. Winds peaked at 175 mph and heavy rain reached almost 14 inches in one place. Andrew caused about $25 billion in damage and 44 fatalities in Florida alone.

History should never be forgotten.

Manatee County’s population is surging. Home sales are spiking. Bradenton stands at No. 6 among the fastest-growing Florida cities. More and more people live in harm’s way — especially those with homes along waterfronts and other flood zones. Newcomers should be especially attuned to the warnings from emergency management officials and other community leaders.

Experts call the lack of hurricanes hitting the United States over the decade —an unprecedented streak — simply a matter of luck. Luck eventually runs out. It's only a question of when.

Don’t be lulled into a false sense of safety. Preparedness does not require a monumental effort. Most people already possess many elements of a storm survival kit. Flashlights and batteries, candles and waterproof matches, duct tape and a pocketknife are among those items likely to be already around the house. One gallon of water per person per day is recommended, with filling empty and cleaned 2-liter soda bottles a cheap option. Plenty of nonperishable food and a can opener should be set aside, too. Cash, travelers checks and vital documents (birth certificates, passports, insurance policies and property records, to name some) should be easy to reach should an evacuation be ordered.

Check inside Sunday’s Herald for our annual Hurricane Guide for detailed information on storm preparation and follow county emergency alerts at Bradenton.com/hurricane.

This story was originally published May 24, 2016 at 11:49 AM with the headline "Take hurricane precautions; storm season opens June 1."