TS Emily reminds us: Expect the unexpected

Storm forecasters have every high-tech tool you can imagine to give residents proper warning and time to prepare.

They’ve got satellites, reconnaissance aircraft, weather balloons, drones, computer models and you name it. When a storm begins brewing 1,000 miles out to sea, they’ve got color-coded paths to project where it might go. Yes, we’ve come a long way from predicting the weather based on the Farmer’s Almanac, quirky animal behavior or our own aches and pains.

Despite the advances in meteorology, forecasters sometimes get taken by surprise, as they were this week with the sudden development of Tropical Storm Emily, whose path and intensity they failed to foresee.

We woke up Monday morning to learn that Emily was about to make landfall on Anna Maria Island — something recorded only three other times in Manatee County history: in 1858, 1930 and 2007.

Emily was a reminder that high-tech tools aren’t foolproof in predicting the sudden development of tropical storms in the Gulf of Mexico, in this case caused by an unusual late-season cool front, warm waters and low atmospheric pressure.

This storm also was a reminder that we are entering the historically busiest portion of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from the middle of August to mid-September.

And it was a reminder that we all must be prepared — not just home and business owners, but emergency managers and those who ensure the safe passage of our roadways.

Emily had a mind of her own. She slammed South Florida with flooding rain and lashed the Gulf coast with tropical storm winds and rain. She seemed to come from nowhere, and led Gov. Rick Scott to declare a state of emergency in 31 counties.

“It just developed very quickly before it made landfall,” Stephen Shiveley with the National Weather Service in Ruskin told the Bradenton Herald.

Forecasters had only expected a couple inches of rain.

Miami Beach officials thought they were prepared to minimize flooding on major roads, with their new pumps and drainage system. But city officials learned the hard way that they need a backup generator for when the power goes out. With pumps offline for about 50 minutes during the deluge, flooding was rampant on Miami Beach streets.

“We’re going to be installing permanent generators,” Miami Beach spokeswoman Tonya Daniels said later.

Rainfall was also heavy in Manatee County, with as much as 7 inches reported in some areas. The most damage appears to have been caused by a weak tornado spawned by Emily that swept through Northwest Bradenton late Monday morning. Officials estimate the damage to Geraldson’s and Orban’s Nursery at almost $100,000. The city of Bradenton had to close three roads for most of the day because of flooding.

Forecasters predict we’ll see 15 named storms and eight hurricanes this season. Three hurricanes are forecast to be Category 3 or stronger. The numbers are slightly higher than was previously forecast in June.

But expect the unexpected.

“Every little swirl, every little low, every little thing in the Gulf of Mexico needs to be watched,” Jonathan Erdman, senior meteorologist at Weather.com, told the Palm Beach Post.

“I was dead wrong,” he said of Emily, this season’s fifth named storm. “This is a humbling field sometimes.”

All of which should be enough of a warning that now is the time to make sure you’re prepared for what could lie ahead.

We’ll be lucky to dodge a hurricane again this year — as we have every year since Wilma in 2005. But don’t bet the farm on our luck holding.

Be sure your roof is in good shape. Make sure the trees around your home are trimmed. Refill the propane tank on your grill. Definitely be sure your shutters are in working condition.

Inside, create an emergency stash of water and canned goods. Make a plan for what to do with your pets, particularly if you have to evacuate. Put important papers somewhere safe and dry.

Hopefully, we will be lucky again. And hopefully, we will have plenty of notice if there is a major storm.

Let’s hope for the best, but prepare for the unexpected.

This story was originally published August 4, 2017 at 9:18 AM with the headline "TS Emily reminds us: Expect the unexpected."