Chances of a new tropical system drop as storm models back off
The chances that a tropical system could develop off the Atlantic coast — as some long-range computer models suggested last week — continue to fall.
As of Monday’s 8 a.m. update, the National Hurricane Center pegged the likelihood of the blob strengthening into anything meaningful at just 10% in the next two or seven days. At highest, last week, its probability was just 20%.
A few days ago, the AI weather models seemed enthusiastic about something developing, while the traditional physics-based weather models were not sensing much development. Over the weekend, most of the AI models have backed away from predictions of storm formation.
“Regardless any trip back west will be met with non favorable atmospherics,” the Weather Channel’s Jim Cantore posted on X Monday morning.
This story was originally published June 29, 2026 at 8:14 AM with the headline "Chances of a new tropical system drop as storm models back off."
