Rapid intensification appears ‘likely’ as tropical storm threatens Haiti, Jamaica
Tropical Storm Melissa is meandering through the warm waters of the Caribbean at a snail’s pace, where it’s expected to pick up enough power to develop into a major Category 4 by Tuesday.
The latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center continues to push the slow-moving storm — moving forward at just 2 mph on Thursday evening — west through the Central Caribbean through early next week.
As of 5 p.m. Thursday, the storm had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph.
The long-range storm models that extend beyond the official forecast of the hurricane center continue to suggest that the storm will steer clear of Florida as it lifts north, but forecasters warned that there’s a lot of uncertainty in the precise forecast and things could shift as it strengthens.
“How far north Melissa gets before it turns to the west continues to remain uncertain,” the hurricane center said in the 5 p.m. Thursday update.
The southern peninsula of Haiti and all of Jamaica remain under a hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning. Both countries are forecast to see a tremendous amount of rain, enough to potentially spawn life-threatening mudslides and flash flooding in Haiti and the island of Hispaniola.
For now, the bulk of Melissa’s rain clouds are stacked on its right side, giving it the opportunity to drench the Caribbean this week with up to 14 inches of rainfall in Haiti’s case as soon as Friday. This threat is magnified if the storm creeps by the islands slowly, continuously dumpling rain, as forecasters currently expect it to do.
Over the weekend, Melissa is expected to emerge from the pocket of harsher wind shear it’s in, which is limiting its ability to grow, and really start juicing up. It could be a Category 1 hurricane as soon as Saturday and a Category 4 by Monday as it cruises south of Jamaica.
“The intensity guidance is insistent on Melissa undergoing a period of rapid intensification in the forecast period,” forecasters wrote Thursday mid-morning.
The office NHC forecast track only stretches until Tuesday. But global storm models, also known as spaghetti models, suggest that Melissa will lift north and cross Cuba — and potentially the Bahamas — on a northeast track out to the open Atlantic.
Injuries begin to mount in Haiti already
In Les Cayes on Thursday, winds were picking up and rain began to fall. The sea was also agitated. Local authorities continued to asked residents in the city and surrounding towns in Haiti’s southern regions to remain vigilant.
The capital of Haiti’s southwest, the coastal city on the country’s southern peninsula, is prone to flooding. In 2021, it was also struck by a major earthquake and has yet to fully recover.
In a report published on Wednesday about Melissa, the Office of Civil Protection said that the fall of a tree had led to the death of a septuagenarian in the municipality of Marigot in the Southeast regional department. In the Artibonite, five people were injured in floods.
While half of Haiti’s regions remain under orange alert, on Thursday morning the government of Jamaica warned residents to make last minute storm preparations.
In the Dominican Republic, President Luis Abinader met with representatives of emergency agencies to prepare for Melissa. Eight provinces have been placed under red alert, 13 under yellow, and three under green.
Farhan Haq, deputy spokesman for United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, said on Wednesday the World Food Program is active in the Caribbean where Tropical Storm Melissa is expected to bring heavy rainfall and high winds to the region.
“Our colleagues from the World Food Program are helping people in the path of the storm to proactively prepare in order to mitigate damages in Haiti,” he said.
This story was originally published October 23, 2025 at 8:01 AM with the headline "Rapid intensification appears ‘likely’ as tropical storm threatens Haiti, Jamaica."
