Storm models hint at system forming next week near Caribbean
.png "This tropical system has a 20% chance of formation within the next seven days.")
There’s a new system worth watching in the Atlantic.
Thursday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center began tracking a tropical wave that could form in the Caribbean. As of 2 p.m., forecasters gave it no chance of developing in the next two days and a 20% shot of strengthening into a tropical depression or storm within the next seven days.
It’s unusual in late October to see a storm develop off the coast of Africa and roll all way across to the Caribbean. Usually, this time of year storms are more likely to develop within the Caribbean and roll upwards towards the islands or the Gulf.
But signals in the models suggest another tropical wave could emerge off Africa’s west coast next week and stretch across to the Caribbean.
“There is little clarity on where it may go, including on a potential track towards #Florida. Models and ensembles are still split. So we wait, watch, but no need for worry,” wrote WFLA Tampa Bay Chief Meteorologist Jeff Berardelli on X Thursday morning.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center suggests a greater than 40% chance that a system could develop in the Caribbean between October 22 and October 28.
And some long-range computer models back that up, including the European model. For days, the ensembles have suggested something ranging from a weak tropical storm to a strong hurricane could make its way west across the Atlantic.
But it’s still very early to make any definitive predictions. If anything does form, it will take a while.
Ryan Truchelut of Weather Tiger said models “are still in good agreement” that the wave could enter the Caribbean on Monday.
“While model opinions differ on where and when development is most likely, all ensembles to have a signal supporting the possibility of a storm forming in the western or central Caribbean around the 25th,” he wrote in his Wednesday newsletter.
From there, he said, it’s hard to know where the would-be storm could go: straight west, into Central America or dither around in the Central Caribbean or possibly hook north into the Gulf.
“Hopefully we can dodge this likely last bullet of the season all the way to an easy finish, but it’s worth continuing to monitor,” he said.
This story was originally published October 16, 2025 at 2:28 PM with the headline "Storm models hint at system forming next week near Caribbean."
