‘Extremely dangerous’ Hurricane Ida expected to strengthen to Category 4 at U.S. coast
Hurricane Ida is intensifying and expected to be an “extremely dangerous” Category 4 storm when it hits the U.S. coast, forecasters said Saturday.
South Florida could see thunderstorms but shouldn’t feel the worst of the rainy outskirts of the powerful storm as it moves through the Gulf. Marine conditions in the Florida Keys, rough in the morning hours, should start to improve through Saturday from the east to the west as Hurricane Ida moves farther away from the Keys into the central Gulf of Mexico, according to the National Weather Service in Miami.
Forecasters are also monitoring two other disturbances in the Atlantic, one of which became a tropical depression about 800 miles east of the Leeward Islands in the 11 a.m. Saturday advisory.
Here’s what to know:
Hurricane Ida forecast to be a Cat 4 before U.S. landfall
Ida hit Category 2 hurricane status white it continued to intensify over the Gulf of Mexico around 2 p.m. Saturday.
As of the 5 p.m. advisory, a growing Ida had 105 mph maximum sustained winds, which extended 30 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds that extended 125 miles from the center.
The system was moving northwest at 16 mph. Ida was about 240 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River and 325 miles southeast of Houma, Louisiana.
On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move over the central Gulf of Mexico through tonight. Ida is then expected to make landfall along the coast of Louisiana within the hurricane warning area on Sunday, and then move inland over portions of Louisiana and western Mississippi later on Monday and Monday night.
Forecasts shows Ida becoming an “extremely dangerous” Category 4 hurricane before reaching the coast. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected due to land interaction, drier air, and an increase in shear.
Morgan City, Louisiana, to the mouth of the Mississippi River, could see storm surge of 10 to 15 feet at highest, which could overwhelm local levees. The hurricane center said Ida could bring 8 to 16 inches to the Gulf Coast, with some spots seeing up to 20 inches.
Storm models suggest Ida’s wind field could grow larger, affecting even more of the coast. Tornadoes are possible Sunday through early Monday across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi, according to the center.
After landfall, Ida is expected to weaken as it moves through the lower Mississippi and Tennessee River valleys.
Watches and warnings
In the 5 p.m. advisory, the storm surge warning was extended eastward to the Alabama/Florida border, including Mobile Bay.
In the 11 a.m. advisory a tropical storm warning was extended eastward along the northern Gulf coast to the Alabama and Florida border.
The hurricane watch along the coast of Mississippi from the mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi and Alabama border was discontinued. The hurricane watch along the coast of Louisiana west of Intracoastal City was also discontinued. The storm surge watch from Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana was discontinued, too.
A storm surge warning is in effect for:
▪ East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the Alabama and Florida border.
▪ Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas and Mobile Bay.
A hurricane warning is in effect for:
▪ Intracoastal City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River.
▪ Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans.
A hurricane watch is in effect for.:
▪ Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for.:
▪ Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana.
▪ Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi and Alabama border.
▪ Eastward along the northern Gulf coast to the Alabama and Florida border.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for:
▪ Mississippi and Alabama border to the Alabama and Florida border.
Tropical Depression 10, disturbance
As Ida continues toward the Gulf of Mexico and the northern U.S. Gulf Coast, forecasters are also monitoring two disturbances in the Atlantic with one becoming a tropical depression Saturday.
The pair pose no threat to land at the moment.
One of the disturbances was producing showers and thunderstorms in the central Atlantic on Saturday, according to the hurricane center.
Although environmental conditions remain only marginally conducive for further development, only a slight increase in organization would result in the formation of a tropical depression later today or tonight.
In a couple of days, the system is forecast to be absorbed by a frontal system.
It had a 80% of formation in the next 48 hours or next five days, as of the 2 p.m. Saturday update.
Then there is the new Tropical Depression 10.
It’s expected to move north before picking up its pace and heading northeast Sunday, away from the United States. As of the 5 a.m. Saturday update, Tropical Depression 10 had winds at 35 mph and was about 790 miles east of the Leeward Islands. Ten was moving north at 8 mph and expected to remain over the open Atlantic well to the east of the Lesser Antilles.
Ten is forecast to become a tropical storm some time Saturday.
The next storm names on the list are Julian and Kate.
This story was originally published August 28, 2021 at 9:53 AM with the headline "‘Extremely dangerous’ Hurricane Ida expected to strengthen to Category 4 at U.S. coast."
