Dorian is gaining strength. Here’s when Manatee could start to feel storm conditions

As of the 11 a.m. advisory on Thursday from the National Weather Service, Hurricane Dorian continues on its predicted path and intensification is likely within the next day or two.

It continues on a northwestward track with a predicted westerly turn toward the east coast of Florida, though the cone of uncertainty still encompasses much of the Sunshine State.

The NWS in Tampa continues to forecast that tropical storm force conditions are possible by Sunday morning in Manatee County.

Spectrum Bay News 9 meteorologist Nick Merianos said Dorian’s track puts the storm in ideal conditions to become a powerful major hurricane, “A category 3 or possibly more. Dorian continues to the northwest and the hurricane itself is moving into very favorable conditions for quick and intensive development.”

Merianos said a lot of unknowns remain, but the biggest concern to Manatee County is the heavy rainfall potential.

“It all depends on its final track,” Merianos said. “But we can expect some heavy rain across the west coast and even the possibility of strong wind.”

With this month being one of the wettest Augusts on record, the ground is saturated and Merianos said that raises serious flooding concerns. If there is a silver lining for the west coast, Merianos said storm surge will not be anything like the east coast will experience.

However, with the storm’s rotation, onshore winds will occur at some point, but storm surge will be isolated depending on the track. Also, trees are more likely to fall in gusty winds because of the ground saturation.

“Regardless of size and direction, a storm like this is always a dangerous situation,” Merianos said. “People need to have their hurricane plan in place. There is still a lot to know about where exactly this storm tracks and what happens to it when it gets to the Gulf.

“Will it hug the coastline and head north? Those are things we don’t know yet, but a shift of 30 to 40 miles can make a big difference either way.”

In the meantime, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday, mainly before 9 p.m.

The weather is expected to deteriorate by late Friday afternoon to Friday evening with ran chances climbing to 90 percent with some storms expected to be heavy.

You can expect much of the same for Saturday and “Tropical storm conditions are possible” by Sunday through Sunday night, according to the NWS.

Chances for rain continue into Tuesday through Wednesday.

This story was originally published August 29, 2019 at 11:15 AM.