Manatee County under tropical storm watch as Hurricane Center issues first forecast cone
Find the latest Friday forecast here.
A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for parts of Manatee County after the National Hurricane Center issued the first advisories for what is now called Potential Tropical Cyclone One.
The storm will be called Alex if it reached tropical strength, and the NHC estimates a 90% probability that will happen.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for inland Manatee County — including Parrish, Lakewood Ranch and Myakka City as well as Ruskin — and areas immediately offshore but not yet for the city of Bradenton or western Manatee.
Sarasota County and all areas south and west area also under a watch.
A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for areas further offshore in the Gulf of Mexico along most of the west coast. Most of the southern half of Florida is now under some kind of weather advisory ahead of the storm.
A watch means tropical storm conditions are possible within 48 hours.
Storm’s path
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft gathered data Thursday, and the storm is still poorly organized with 35 mph winds and is facing wind shear that’s slowing strengthening.
It’s expected to turn northeast over the next 24 hours and cross over Florida on Saturday.
However, its path is still very unclear because the center of the storm is not well-defined. “The intensity and structure forecasts for this system are very uncertain,” the NHC forecast discussion says.
There are a few factors working against the storm’s strengthening. It will run into more strong wind shear and dry air that will help rip it apart.
So the latest forecast predicts “slight development despite the hostile conditions.”
Timing
It should reach tropical depression status by early Friday morning and tropical storm status by Friday evening.
A tropical depression has at least 38 mph winds, and a tropical storm can have anywhere form 39 to 73 mph winds.
Impacts are expected in the Keys and South Florida by Friday night, but the Suncoast should see effects sometime Saturday.
Manatee County forecast
In Manatee County, peak wind of 10-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph is expected, but it could get up to 39-57 mph. One to three inches of rain is forecast, but some spots could see more.
The storm has a large wind field and because it is disorganized, some of the strongest winds “are likely to be well removed from the center,” the NHC said.
Storm surge and tornadoes are not likely with this storm.
Prepare for heavy rain, wind gusts and possible power outages. “Act now to complete preparations before the wind becomes hazardous.”
Possible wind impacts:
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
Possible rain impacts:
- Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become swollen and overflow in spots.
- Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge closures.
National Weather Service Tampa meteorologist Austen Flannery said conditions in the Gulf of Mexico will make it unsafe for boaters and swimmers near Bradenton’s beaches.
“The system is likely to become a tropical depression or storm,” Flannery said. “Regardless, we will get some rain, but the primary threat will be in the Gulf of Mexico — it’s going to get bad out there.”
If you live on a boat or near a marina, be cautious.
The National Weather Service in Miami said this heavy rainfall Friday and Friday night could cause numerous flash floods across South Florida and the Florida Keys.
The storm is made of remnants from Hurricane Agatha, which made landfall Monday in Mexico as a Category 2 storm.
This story was originally published June 2, 2022 at 2:45 PM.
