What is the Gulf Loop current, and should I worry about eerie Katrina connection?

The 2022 hurricane season began on Wednesday — and forecasters say it could be rough one.

Several factors, from warmer-than-average surface temperatures in the Atlantic to the ongoing La Niña weather pattern, lead experts to believe the Coast is in for a stormy summer of tropical weather, but one in particular has stood out in recent media coverage: a formation known as the Loop Current, which is unusually far north in the Gulf of Mexico for this time of year.

More ominously, in a detail that has grabbed headlines, the Loop Current is now positioned roughly where it was at this time of year in 2005.

In August of that year, before making landfall and devastating the Gulf Coast, Hurricane Katrina intensified from Category 3 to Category 5 in the space of just 9 hours as it passed through the Loop Current.

What is the Loop Current?

The Loop Current is the name given to the flow of deep, warm water in a clockwise pattern that roves around the eastern Gulf. It feeds the larger and better known Gulf Stream current, which begins in Florida and crosses the Atlantic Ocean.

Because hurricanes derive their strength in part from warm waters (generally hotter than 80 degrees), the Loop Current can sometimes fuel tropical storms that pass through it.

So does the current position of the Loop Current mean we’re likely to see another Katrina in 2022?

It’s not that simple, a forecaster at the National Weather Service told the Sun Herald.

Phil Grigsby, lead forecaster at the NWS in New Orleans, said the media attention in recent days given to the Loop Current “drove us crazy on the meteorology side.”

“It seemed to instill panic or make things sound worse than they actually were,” Grigsby said.

It’s more than just Katrina

He noted that there have been years since 2005 in which the Loop Current has been similarly positioned without giving rise to tropical cyclones.

In conjunction with the right combination of variables — namely high atmospheric moisture content and a lack of wind shear, or the vertical variation in wind speed — the Loop Current could certainly strengthen storms, Grigsby said.

But he warns against reading too much into the current’s position alone.

“Just because the Loop Current is in the same position that it was in 2005 doesn’t mean that we’re going to see anything like what we saw in 2005,” said Grigsby.

Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.

This story was originally published June 2, 2022 at 6:50 AM with the headline "What is the Gulf Loop current, and should I worry about eerie Katrina connection?."