Tropical system could move into Gulf of Mexico. Forecasters say rain likely most of the week

The National Weather Service increased the chance for a tropical system to form in the Gulf of Mexico to 70 percent as of Monday morning and by Monday afternoon bumped it up even higher to 80 percent.

The system could form by the middle of the week, but regardless of formation and potential direction, the NWS reports heavy rainfall throughout Southwest Florida remains a concern for the remainder of the week.

The chance of storms Monday are 70 percent throughout the day with new rainfall amounts as much as an additional half-inch on top of the 3.5 inches of rain measured at the SRQ Airport so far in July.

Rain chances increase on Tuesday to 80 percent with winds gusting up to 18 mph. Rain chances remain at 80 percent through the end of the week, with increasing wind speeds expected depending on the severity of tropical development.

However, the NWS reports that wind gusts could reach as high as 30 mph by Thursday with or without tropical development.

Rain chances are expected to decrease by Friday with a more typical summer pattern with rain chances averaging around 60 percent for Friday and Saturday and dropping to 40 percent by Sunday.

If the tropical system develops, forecasters say it’s a “rare” occasion given that the low formed over land and is meandering southward into the Gulf of Mexico where, if it develops, is expected to turn back toward Florida’s west to northwest coast. Typically this time of year, tropical systems are born from lows developing over the water.

Forecasters remain uncertain on where the system will head, if it develops, but said it is likely that that it will largely be a rain event as it heads back toward land.

Forecasters began tracking the possibility of a tropical formation late last week, saying it was only a 20 percent chance a system would develop. By Sunday, the NWS upped it to 60 percent and at 1:30 a.m. on Monday morning, issued a new release increasing the chance to 70 percent.

Florida residents along the west coast are asked to be prepared and stay vigilant in tracking the weather for the remainder of the week.

This story was originally published July 8, 2019 at 7:45 AM.