Tropical Depression Eta still on track to approach Cuba, South Florida as a tropical storm
Tropical Depression Eta continues to move through Central America and slowly gets a more defined path of its potential impact on South Florida this weekend.
The National Hurricane Center has forecast that Eta — weakened but likely to regain tropical storm force — will re-enter the Caribbean Sea on Friday, cross Cuba and approach the South Florida coast. Exactly where in South Florida remains uncertain, although the Lower Florida Keys seem most likely.
The projected path shifted east Wednesday night, putting the eye of the storm on track to cross near Key West and sweep up the state’s Gulf Coast early next week.
But even if that path holds, forecasters warn that the large and wet storm could lead to heavy rains and flooding on the Southeast coast as well.
On Wednesday morning, Monroe County Emergency Management Director Shannon Weiner urged Keys residents to expect potential wind gusts of up to 65 mph. The Keys could start seeing tropical-storm-force winds as early as Saturday evening, but the hurricane center said they’ll most likely begin Sunday morning.
“This is a good time to make plans to batten down the hatches for this weekend,” Weiner said in a news release.
The National Weather Service said the chance for heavy rains and gusty winds has increased, with flooding a particular concern because of the saturated soil across portions of the area.
Miami-Dade County has a 50-80% chance of rain Thursday through Sunday, with an 80% chance of rain Saturday, according to the weather service. In Broward County, those rain chances range from 50-80%. The Keys are looking at a 60-70% chance of rain.
Forecasters said the rain is associated with Eta’s moisture, and that South Florida might see 8 to 10 inches of rain through Monday. However, the weather service says it is still too early to know for certain and that the forecast will likely change in the coming days.
The South Florida Water Management District, which is lowering canals and staffing pump stations ahead of the expected deluge, predicted the Keys could see the most rain at 10 to 15 inches.
The National Hurricane Center also warned that “there is a fair amount of uncertainty about what parts of Cuba and Florida the center may pass near or over.”
Craig Setzer, meteorologist at Miami Herald news partner CBS4, tweeted that he’ll be watching how quickly Eta redevelops in the Caribbean and if the storm slows down as it approaches Florida.
“Neither would be good,” he said.
Eta is continuing to dump heavy rain that can cause “catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America,” according to the hurricane center.
La Tribuna reported at least one death in Honduras from the storm, as well as intense winds and flooding that overran rivers, ripped the roofs from homes and sent thousands of people to shelters.
The worst of the rain is dousing Nicaragua and Honduras, with 15 to 25 inches of new rainfall expected, and some areas may see up to 40 inches in northeast Nicaragua and eastern Honduras.
Forecasters say flash flooding and river flooding is possible across Jamaica, southeastern Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti and the Cayman Islands.
The good news is that storm surge is beginning to subside, with water levels along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras expected to gradually decrease Wednesday, the hurricane center said.
Where is Tropical Storm Eta and where is it going?
As of 10 p.m. Wednesday, Eta was moving west-northwest at about 7 mph, with maximum sustained winds near 35 mph as well as higher gusts, according to the National Hurricane Center. The storm’s tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 35 miles from its center.
Eta is forecast to move across Honduras through Thursday afternoon and then emerge over the Gulf of Honduras by Thursday night. The storm is expected to approach the Cayman Islands and western Cuba this weekend. Eta is also expected to weaken while it remains over land during the next day or so; it could weaken to a remnant low before re-intensifying over the Caribbean Sea on Saturday.
The forecast track then shows Tropical Storm Eta moving over Cuba Sunday and approaching South Florida by late Sunday or early Monday.
This story was originally published November 4, 2020 at 7:10 AM with the headline "Tropical Depression Eta still on track to approach Cuba, South Florida as a tropical storm."
