Global temperatures expected to keep setting heat records through 2030
May 28 (UPI) -- The average global temperature is expected to remain at or near record highs over the next five years, scientists said in a report published Thursday.
The average mean surface temperature of the Earth from 2026 to 2030 is expected to be roughly 1.3 degrees Celsius to 1.9 degrees Celsius above the global average temperature recorded between 1850 and 1900, the World Meteorological Organization said in its annual Decadal Climate Update.
Scientists at the WMO also said that there is an 86% chance that one of the next five years will surpass the global average temperature record, which was set in 2024.
That record high temperature, they said, has a 91% chance to exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius that was briefly surpassed during the 2024 record, with a chance it could happen as soon as next year.
"There is an El Nino predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the changes of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year," Leon Hermanson, lead author of the report, said in a press release.
El Nino conditions are expected at least twice in the next five years, which drives higher temperatures in the tropics, according to the report.
Although the scientists said there is a less than 1% chance that global averages will surpass 2 degrees Celsius, overall most regions of the world are expected to continue to see higher than expected temperatures during the next five years.
In addition to Arctic temperatures predicted to be 2.8 degrees Celsius above average temperatures recorded between 1991 and 2020, sea ice concentrations are expected to be further reduced in the Arctic region at the same time as a result of rising temperatures.
Noting that over the last several decades near-surface temperatures have increased continuously, the scientists said that the last three years -- 2023, 2024 and 2025 -- are the warmest on record, with the streak expected to continue.
"Annually averaged global near-surface temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels in the five period 2026 to 2030 and say well above mean temperatures seen in the last 60 years," they wrote in the report.
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This story was originally published May 28, 2026 at 3:01 PM.