Cuban leader Raúl Castro will stay in power past February

The Cuban government has announced that it will postpone a historic presidential election scheduled in two months’ time that was expected to result in a generational political transition and Cuban leader Raúl Castro stepping down from office.

Castro will remain in power at least until April 19, the date now set for election of a new legislature and the president of the Councils of State and Ministers, positions that Castro currently holds. The official announcement, published in the Communist Party newspaper Granma on Thursday, said the decision was made because of the impact of Hurricane Irma, which hit Cuba as a category 5 storm in September.

Storm recovery led to a delay in municipal elections — the first step in a process that was to culminate in the election of a new National Assembly on Feb. 24 and the election of a new president. Castro has said since 2013 that he planned to retire on that date, the end of his second term in power after succeeding his late brother Fidel.

The U.S. Department of State and the White House did not immediately react to the news.

Given a host of economic problems beyond the hurricane, a tense relationship with the United States stemming from mysterious acoustic incidents that damaged the health of American diplomats in Havana, and dwindling economic support form its staunch ally Venezuela, some Cuba watchers had speculated that he would stay in power longer.

Although the Cuban government says the Cuban economy has grown by 1.6 percent this year, some independent economists say they expect no growth or worse when this year’s final figures are tallied.

“I know very well how they think and react. To me, it’s inconceivable facing the current circumstances that they would retire,” Domingo Amuchastegui, a former Cuban intelligence analyst who now lives in Miami told the Miami Herald earlier this month. “And it’s not just him [Castro], but it’s the whole team — the historic generation — that would be expected to go forward for a time.”

And in June, Mariela Castro — Raúl Castro’s daughter, said in an interview with a Spanish radio station that “there are many people that don’t want my father to leave power, many people that are pressuring that he won’t do it.”

This is the first time since 1976, when a limited election was reintroduced, that the Cuban government has decided to change the dates of the elections.

The delay also gives Castro more time to finalize potential deals with other countries that could help the ailing Cuban economy, said Andy Gómez, the interim director of the University of Miami’s Institute of Cuban and Cuban-American Studies.

“The pragmatic Raúl Castro wants to pass the baton when the economy is in better shape,” said Gómez. “The Cuban economy is not going to recover in 60 days, but it does give him more time to reach out to other countries.”

One of them could be the U.S., he said: “Sources tell me that the Cubans are working on a plan to present to the United States that would make Cuba more attractive for U.S. investment. That would require [President Donald Trump] to change some of his executive orders on Cuba.”

Another might be Russia. Castro met with Igor Sechin, president of Rosneft, the oil company majority-owned by the Russian government, on Saturday — raising expectations that energy announcements favorable to Cuba might be forthcoming.

While Amuchastegui said...

During the presidential campaign, Trump repeatedly said that the United States needed to get a better deal with Cuba than the one negotiated by the Obama administration during the historic U.S.-Cuba opening that began in December 2014. Since Trump took office, relations between the two countries have deteriorated.

In the wake of acoustic incidents or attacks that the United States said caused hearing loss and other health problems for 24 diplomats stationed in Havana, the United States withdrew all but a skeletal staff at its embassy in Havana and ordered the expulsion of 15 Cuban diplomats from Washington. While the United States hasn’t directly blamed Cuba for the incidents, it has said Cuba had the responsibility to protect American diplomats while they were on Cuban soil.

Encouraged by several Cuban-American members of Congress, the U.S.-Cuba relationship took a political turn under Trump and his administration issued new regulations that prevent most business dealings with entities controlled by the Cuban military. The Mariel Special Economic Development Zone — a centerpiece of Cuban efforts to attract foreign investment — was among the Cuban entities placed on the prohibited list.

The delay in the transfer of power opens up more questions about who Castro's successor might be. Cuban First Vice President Miguel Díaz-Canel, a man who was born after the triumph of the 1959 Cuban Revolution, has been widely viewed as the most likely successor to Castro.

There was no mention of Díaz-Canel’s role in the official announcement.

Díaz Canel has “institutional legitimacy... and for being the person who Raúl Castro has deposited his confidence in and indicated as an eventual successor,” said Cuban political analyst Carlos Alzugaray in an email sent to el Nuevo Herald.

“However, unlike Fidel and Raúl, Díaz-Canel does not have the legitimacy of being un histórico, [one of the historic leaders of the Cuban Revolution] in a country where this has importance and is a source not only of legitimacy but also of authority,” Alzugaray said. Without that legitimacy, Díaz-Canel will have to show results, especially in the economic sphere, he said.

During Wednesday’s session of the National Assembly, Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez gave a pep talk of sorts, saying Cuba’s “problems have solutions and there can be no giving up.”

Whoever succeeds Castro will be called upon to balance the desires of Cuban hardliners and those who want the Cuban economy to open more and the outreach to the United States to continue.

Some Cuban dissidents have noted what they consider “lack of leadership” by the Cuban vice president, who has issued harsh statements about the United States and the Cuban opposition in a leaked video.

“I do not see a scope in his thought or in his expression,” Antonio Rodiles said in a recent interview. Rodiles and fellow Cuban activist Ailer González believe that Castro is preparing a transfer of generational power in which Diaz-Canel, 57, would be the face of a government controlled by the Communist Party with Castro remaining as the party’s first secretary and his son, Col. Alejandro Castro Espín, also at the forefront.

“Díaz-Canel is perfect for that because he does not have any power, nor anyone who follows him, nor a commanding voice,” González said.

For Florida Republican Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, the postponement of the election wasn’t surprising. “Dictators always want to remain in power,” she tweeted in Spanish. “The Cuban people deserve more than Raul Castro and his secuaces. Cuba will be free when the people elect their leaders in a free, transparent and just manner.”

This story was originally published December 21, 2017 at 1:30 PM with the headline "Cuban leader Raúl Castro will stay in power past February."