Marco Rubio Surges in 2028 Republican Presidential Primary Poll

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has climbed into a near tie with Vice President JD Vance in the early race for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, according to new national polling that points to a rapidly shifting GOP field.

A new Emerson College Polling survey shows Vance with 36 percent support among likely Republican primary voters, and Rubio close behind at 35 percent. Neither Vance nor Rubio has announced a presidential campaign yet; however, Rubio’s rise reflects a broader reshaping of the Republican electorate since early 2026, with what once looked like a dominant Vance candidacy evolving into a competitive race defined by demographic splits and rising uncertainty.

His growing visibility as Secretary of State, including a recent four-day visit to India aimed at stabilizing strained ties and advancing U.S. strategic interests, also positions him more prominently on the global stage as the 2028 contest takes shape.

Since August 2025, Rubio's support has surged by 26 points, rising from 9 percent to 35 percent, while a 15-point gain since February has erased Vance's once commanding lead and turned the contest into a two-candidate race, according to this polling series.

Key Points

• Vance leads narrowly, with Rubio close behind among GOP primary voters
• Rubio has surged dramatically from single digits in 2025 to 20 percent in February
• Age divides are emerging, with Rubio leading older voters and Vance ahead among younger Republicans
• The Democratic primary remains fragmented, led by Pete Buttigieg at 18 percent
• Voter dissatisfaction is high, with majorities saying both parties are on the wrong track
• The economy tops voter concerns at 41 percent, while most oppose U.S. intervention in Cuba

What To Know

Among Republican primary voters surveyed, Vance held 36 percent support while Rubio stood at 35 percent. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley each registered 5 percent, while 15 percent were undecided.

That represents a significant shift from February, when Vance led with 52 percent support compared with Rubio's 20 percent. Emerson College Polling executive director Spencer Kimball said the race has "shifted significantly," with both candidates now competing evenly.

The shift is underpinned by a clear age divide. Rubio leads among Republican voters aged 50 and older, 41 percent to 35 percent, while Vance leads among voters under 50, 37 percent to 26 percent.

The broader political environment remains unsettled. President Donald Trump's job approval stands at 39 percent, with 55 percent disapproving. Majorities of voters say both the Democratic Party (58 percent) and the Republican Party (59 percent) are on the wrong track.

Partisan views diverge sharply. Among Democrats, 67 percent say their party is headed in the right direction, while 76 percent of Republicans and 64 percent of independents say Democrats are on the wrong track. Conversely, 78 percent of Republicans say their party is on the right path, while 87 percent of Democrats and 68 percent of independents say Republicans are off course.

The Emerson College Polling national survey was conducted May 24–25, 2026, among 1,000 likely U.S. voters, with a plus or minus 3 percentage point margin of error. Subsamples of 432 likely Republican primary voters and 432 likely Democratic primary voters carried margins of error of plus or minus 4.7 points.

Democratic Primary Landscape

On the Democratic side, the field remains fragmented. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg leads with 18 percent among likely Democratic primary voters, followed by California Governor Gavin Newsom at 16 percent.

Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez stands at 11 percent, while Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and former Vice President Kamala Harris are tied at 10 percent. Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear follows at 9 percent, with 18 percent of voters undecided.

Since February, movement has been incremental. Buttigieg has gained two points, while Newsom has declined by four. Ocasio-Cortez and Shapiro have both seen their support increase, while Beshear has also gained ground. Harris has slipped from 13 percent to 10 percent.

Voters Prioritize Economy as Cuba Policy Draws Opposition

Issue salience continued to shape voter attitudes in the poll. The economy was the top concern for 41 percent of voters, the highest level of the year. Concern over threats to democracy has risen to 19 percent, up four points since April, while immigration has fallen to 11 percent, its lowest level this year.

Foreign policy attitudes are also clearly defined. A majority of voters-57 percent-oppose the United States launching military intervention in Cuba, compared with 23 percent who support it and 20 percent who are unsure.

Opposition spans demographic groups, including Hispanic voters (50 percent oppose, 34 percent support), white voters (55 percent oppose, 23 percent support), and Black voters (67 percent oppose, 20 percent support).

For Rubio, a Cuban American, the question of U.S. policy toward Cuba carries added personal and political resonance as his national profile rises within the Republican field.

Broader Electoral Context

The poll suggests a favorable environment for Democrats ahead of the 2026 midterms. On the generic congressional ballot, Democrats lead Republicans 50 percent to 41 percent, with 9 percent undecided-a nine-point advantage.

What Happens Next

Taken together, the findings point to a political landscape still in flux.

On the Republican side, Rubio's rapid ascent has fundamentally reshaped the race, transforming it from a one-sided contest into a competitive two-way fight. On the Democratic side, no candidate has yet consolidated support in a crowded field.

With large shares of undecided voters in both parties and clear shifts in voter priorities underway, the early contours of the 2028 presidential race remain unsettled.

2026 NEWSWEEK DIGITAL LLC.

This story was originally published May 28, 2026 at 9:55 AM.