Are early swing state voters breaking for Trump or Harris? What a new poll found

Vice President Kamala Harris holds a double-digit lead over former President Donald Trump among early voters who have already cast their ballots in three key swing states, new polling reveals.

Trump, on the other hand, has a similar lead among likely voters who have not yet voted in those states.

The results correspond with a nationwide trend of Democrats outpacing Republicans in early voting — as they did during the 2020 presidential election.

The findings come from three separate Marist College polls conducted in North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona between Oct. 17 and 22. They sampled an average of 1,460 adults in each state and have margins of error between 3.2 and 3.5 percentage points.

Here is a breakdown of the findings.

North Carolina

In the Tar Heel State, Harris edged out Trump 55% to 43% among those who said they’ve already voted. But the former president led Harris 53% to 45% with likely voters who haven’t yet cast their ballots.

Trump also led Harris by two points among likely voters who are undecided, including voters who are leaning toward one candidate.

Similarly, Trump outpaced the vice president 53% to 42% with independents in the state who are likely to vote.

When the results are broken down by race, the former president held an 18-point lead among white voters — 58% to 40%. In 2020, Trump won white voters by 33 points. Harris had an even larger lead among Black voters — 80% to 19%.

There were also slight generational differences. A majority of Gen Z and Millennial respondents, 53%, supported Harris, while most Gen X respondents, 54%, broke for Trump. Additionally, Trump led with Baby Boomers and the Greatest Generation by one and three points, respectively.

As is the case nationally, there was a gender gap, with Trump leading among men 52% to 46% and Harris leading among women 50% to 49%.

Georgia

In the Peach State, Harris led Trump by 10 points — 55% to 45% — among respondents who said they’ve already voted. Trump had a smaller advantage — 52% to 46% — with likely voters who haven’t yet cast their ballots.

The two candidates were tied among likely voters, including voters who are undecided but inclined to support one candidate.

However, the vice president had a 15-point lead — 55% to 40% — among independents. President Joe Biden won independents by a nine-point margin in 2020.

When the results are broken down by race, there are massive disparities. For example, more than twice as many white respondents said they supported Trump compared to Harris — 67% to 32%. And the vice president had an even larger advantage with Black respondents — 82% versus 15%.

Harris also received the support of most Gen Z/Millennial and Baby Boomer respondents — 55% and 54%, respectively. Trump, in contrast, garnered the support of most Gen X and Greatest Generation respondents — 55% and 62%.

Like in North Carolina, a gender gap was also present. The former president led Harris 56% to 43% with men, and Harris led him 55% to 43% among women.

Arizona

In Arizona, Harris once again led Trump among respondents who said they already voted — 56% to 44%.

Trump, though, outpaced Harris 55% to 44% with likely voters who haven’t yet cast their ballots. Among all likely voters, Trump led the vice president 50% to 49%.

Among independents, however, Harris had a 10-point advantage — 55% to 45%.

Unlike in Georgia and North Carolina, white voters were about evenly split between the two candidates, with 50% supporting Trump and 49% supporting Harris. In 2020, Trump won this demographic by six points.

However, the former president had a seven-point lead over Harris with Latino voters — 53% to 46%. In 2020, Biden carried this demographic by a double-digit margin.

A majority of Gen X respondents, 52%, said they supported Trump, while 55% of Baby Boomers said they favored Harris. Gen Z/Millennials and the Greatest Generation were more evenly divided.

Like in the other two swing states, Trump led Harris with men — 54% to 46% — and Harris outpaced Trump with women — 53% to 45%.

The results of all three polls come less than two weeks before Election Day, with numerous nationwide and swing state polls showing the race is on a razor’s edge.

This story was originally published October 25, 2024 at 12:48 PM with the headline "Are early swing state voters breaking for Trump or Harris? What a new poll found."