What do polls, early voting data reveal about presidential race in Nevada, a key swing state?

Nevada — land of Las Vegas and the Hoover Dam — is one of several swing states expected to decide the outcome of the presidential election.

With its six electoral votes, the Silver State could help propel Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump to victory.

With less than two weeks until Election Day, how are the candidates performing there?

Recent polls and early voting data indicate the race is on a razor’s edge, but there are some worrying signs for Democrats.

What polls show

According to a polling average from FiveThirtyEight — an election analysis site — Harris and Trump are dead even in Nevada.

Many of the polls conducted in October have the two candidates tied or within 1 or 2 points of each other and within the margin of error.

For example, an InsiderAdvantage poll conducted between Oct. 19 and 20 found the candidates each receiving about 48% support. It sampled 800 likely voters and has a margin of error of 3.52 percentage points.

Similarly, a Redfield and Wilton Strategies poll conducted between Oct. 16 and 18 shows Trump leading Harris 47% to 46%. The poll, which sampled 633 Nevada residents, has a margin of error of 3.89 percentage points.

Trump also edged Harris out by 1 point, 47% to 46%, among likely voters in an AARP poll conducted between Oct. 8 and 15. The poll sampled 1,368 likely voters and has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

“With the polls so close, it would be foolish of me to say that one candidate has an advantage,” David Fott, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, told McClatchy News in an email.

What early voting data shows

Early voting data paints a picture that could favor Republicans.

Polls opened for early in-person voting in the Silver State on Oct. 19. And since then, about 141,000 votes have been cast, according to data from the Nevada secretary of state.

Each day since Oct. 19, Republicans have cast more early in-person votes than Democrats — by margins as wide as 55% to 25%.

And, when mail-in votes are factored in, Republicans still have a turnout edge — though significantly lessened — of 2.5 percentage points, according to Jon Ralston, the editor of the Nevada Independent.

The phenomenon is “pretty easy to explain,” Ralston said in a blog post.

Unlike in previous years, many Republicans, particularly those in rural areas, are voting early in-person. And, at the same time, the early voting “firewall” in Clark County — which composes Las Vegas — “has all but collapsed,” Ralston said.

“The large mail ballot lead enjoyed by Dems has been erased and more by the GOP lead in in-person early voting,” Ralston said.

This indicates Republicans’ effort to increase early voting nationwide — despite Trump’s repeated vilification of the voting method — has reaped some success.

The GOP has not had an advantage in early voting in a presidential election year in Nevada since 2008, Ralston said, adding, “This could signal serious danger for the Dems and for Kamala Harris here.”

Fott, on the other hand, dismissed concerns about early turnout among Democrats.

“I do not put any stock in the heavy Republican turnout so far,” Fott said. “Democrats may be more likely to trust the mail to deliver their votes. And how will the turnout be on Election Day?”

Jeremy Gelman, a professor of political science at the University of Nevada, Reno, also expressed caution about reading too much into early voting data.

“The race in Nevada is likely going to be very close and at this point, there is not much to glean from the early vote return for a few reasons,” Gelman told McClatchy News. “First, the comparison to 2020 isn’t apt because turnout patterns were so different due to the pandemic and Trump’s encouragement that Republicans vote in person on Election Day. (The) GOP messaging has shifted towards encouraging early voting this year. Second, it is not clear how quickly mail-in ballots are being recorded as received.”

Election experts also previously told McClatchy News that early voting tallies are not necessarily predictive of how elections will turn out.

“I worry about drawing any inferences from early voting data,” Paul Beck, an emeritus professor of political science at Ohio State University, told McClatchy News earlier in October.

Democrats have won Nevada in the past four presidential elections, though only by narrow margins in 2016 and 2020, according to 270towin, a nonpartisan election analysis site.

This story was originally published October 23, 2024 at 12:59 PM with the headline "What do polls, early voting data reveal about presidential race in Nevada, a key swing state?."