Will Nikki Haley voters back Trump? Poll finds large shift from how they voted in 2020

Many Nikki Haley voters have shifted away from supporting former President Donald Trump and could be open to backing Vice President Kamala Harris, new polling reveals.

The latest Blueprint poll questioned 781 Republicans and independents who voted for Haley in the primary or who said they wanted her as the Republican nominee.

The majority of them, 59%, said they voted for Trump in 2020. But now, only 45% plan to cast their ballots for him again in 2024, marking a 14-point difference.

A majority of them also said they have not exclusively voted for Republicans in the past, according to the poll, which was conducted between Sept. 28 to Oct. 6 and has a margin of error of 4.3 percentage points. And a larger share said they have a favorable view of Harris (34%) than Trump (27%).

“Nikki Haley voters are up for grabs for Kamala Harris,” Evan Roth Smith, a pollster at Blueprint, a Democratic-aligned polling organization, said in a news release

“They’re fed up with Trump’s chaos but skeptical of Kamala Harris’s policies, presenting an opportunity for the Harris campaign to close that gap,” Ross Smith added.

Other key findings

The poll — which comes just weeks before Election Day — found that Haley voters have significant concerns about both Harris and Trump. But, they also believe both candidates have upsides.

Fifty-seven percent said they’re concerned Trump is too erratic, while a far smaller share, 38%, said they’re worried his policy proposals are too extreme.

When asked about Harris, the reverse was true — with 50% saying they were concerned about her extreme policies and 38% citing concerns about her being erratic.

However, Haley voters were more likely to associate Harris with positive traits and Trump with negative ones.

The trait that the largest share of Haley voters associated with Trump is “being too old to lead” (net +46), followed by being “too selfish to lead” (net +33).

Meanwhile, the trait that the biggest share associated with Harris is “being young enough” (net+44) and “having compassion” (net +23).

Still, Trump performed better with Haley voters when it came to some of their most important issues.

They said they trusted him more on inflation (+24) and the economy (+23) — two of their three top issues — and immigration (net +38).

Harris had the advantage on climate change (net +24) and abortion (+29).

The vice president also had a slight lead when it came to how acceptable her ideas were.

Forty-eight percent of Haley voters said Harris’ ideas are “extreme and dangerous,” while 53% said the same of Trump’s ideas, marking a 5-point difference.

Haley voters were also asked what critiques best described both parties.

Fifty-five percent said the criticism that the Democratic party “has moved too far left” describes the party very well.

And 42% said the criticism that the Republican party “opposes abortion too much” describes the GOP very well.

This story was originally published October 10, 2024 at 12:47 PM with the headline "Will Nikki Haley voters back Trump? Poll finds large shift from how they voted in 2020."