Would conviction in hush-money case hurt Trump? Some of his voters say it would help

The hush-money case against former President Donald Trump is set to go to trial next month in New York, setting the stage for a possible criminal conviction before the 2024 election.

But, a guilty verdict would not matter to most of Trump’s supporters. In fact, it would galvanize a sizable minority of them, according to new polling.

A majority of Trump voters, 62%, said a conviction would not affect their vote, according to a March 27 poll from Quinnipiac University.

Meanwhile, more than one in four Trump voters, 26%, said it would only make them more likely to vote for the former president, while just 10% said it would make them less likely to vote for him.

The poll, conducted by phone from March 21 to 25, sampled 1,569 U.S. adults and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.

When taking all survey respondents into account, including Democrats, Republicans and non-affiliated voters, 55% said a conviction would not affect their vote in November. And 29% said it would make them less likely to vote for Trump, while 12% said it would incentivize them to vote for him.

In a similar poll, conducted by Ipsos in March, 32% of voters said a conviction in the hush-money case would make them less likely to support Trump. A plurality of voters, 44%, said it would have no impact on their vote, and 13% said it would make them more likely to vote for Trump.

The trial, which is scheduled to begin on April 15, centers on whether Trump falsified business records to cover up alleged hush-money payments to porn star Stormy Daniels.

New York prosecutors have said Trump altered the records in order to keep the alleged extramarital affair from damaging his 2016 presidential campaign.

Trump has maintained his innocence and has called the case a “hoax” and “witch hunt.”

The case is the first of four criminal cases against the former president to go to trial. Two of the cases — in Washington, D.C., and Georgia — charge Trump with interfering with the 2020 election, while the third, in Florida, charges him with mishandling classified documents.

This story was originally published March 28, 2024 at 12:00 PM with the headline "Would conviction in hush-money case hurt Trump? Some of his voters say it would help."