Biden trails Trump in these 7 battleground states — but there’s a catch, poll finds
Former President Donald Trump is beating President Joe Biden in seven battleground states — but his support could evaporate if he is convicted in court, according to new polling.
In a worrying sign for Democrats, Trump, the likely GOP nominee, is leading Biden in North Carolina, Nevada, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona and Pennsylvania, according to a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll released on Jan. 31.
These states, with their combined 93 electoral votes, are likely to determine the outcome of the coming 2024 election.
The poll, conducted between Jan. 16 and 22, sampled 4,956 registered voters in all seven states and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage point.
Trump’s lead is the largest in North Carolina, where 49% of voters said they would vote for him, while 39% said the same for Biden. He is ahead by single digits in the other six states.
In the poll, Trump also received higher marks on top voting issues, including on the economy and immigration.
“Trends matter,” Jon Ralston, the CEO of the Nevada Independent wrote on X, formerly Twitter, in response to the poll, adding it is a “real warning beacon” for Democrats.
Other recent polls have found Trump has a slight edge over Biden in a general election face-off, including a January Emerson College poll that revealed the former president has a 1 percentage point advantage.
There is a catch in the Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, though. A majority of voters in all seven states said they would be unwilling to cast their ballots for Trump if he is dealt a guilty verdict in court.
A slim majority, 53%, said they would not vote for Trump if he is convicted in court, while 55% said the same if he were sentenced to prison, per the poll.
Of the voters who supported Trump in 2016, 25% said they would withhold their support this time around if he is found guilty.
Trump is currently facing charges in four separate federal cases, including in Washington, D.C. and Fulton County, Georgia, over his alleged attempt to overturn the 2020 election.
Trump’s legal team, who have maintained his innocence, has sought to delay both trials “at any cost,” according to ABC News.
This story was originally published January 31, 2024 at 1:18 PM with the headline "Biden trails Trump in these 7 battleground states — but there’s a catch, poll finds."