Experts: No major red tide outbreak on west coast this year

Researchers may be one step closer in understanding the mysterious ways of red tide blooms.

Two studies recently published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans by a team of researchers from University of South Florida’s College of Marine Science and the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission forecast that Florida’s west coast probably won’t see a major red tide bloom this year.

By asking what state of the ocean would keep a major bloom from happening, the researchers, led by physical oceanography professor Robert Weisberg, looked at how ocean circulation around the West Florida Continental Shelf would make some parts of the ocean nutrient-rich or nutrient-deficient, and how that affects red tide blooms.

Water deep in the ocean has naturally occurring nutrients that when it travels through the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current and interacts with the shallower portions called a “pressure point” of the West Florida Shelf near Dry Tortugas in Key West, it kicks up that naturally nutrient deep water to shallower areas near the coast. When there’s more naturally occurring nutrients in the water, other algae have the chance to out-compete red tide algae, which lessens the likelihood of a red tide bloom occurring.

To establish a pattern between the interactions and K. brevis, researchers used 23 years of satellite and K. brevis abundance data and made 2010 an example the lack of a red tide bloom and 2012 an example of a strong bloom. All but four years out of the 23 matched the pattern and the researchers were able to make accurate bloom forecasts for 2014 and 2015.

“When nutrient-rich conditions occur in the red tide formative region other non-toxic algae are favored, thereby suppressing red tide bloom development. Conversely, nutrient-deficient conditions there favor the development of red tide blooms,” said Weisberg in a press release.

These deep-water nutrients rise up to waters around the panhandle and in estuaries between Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

Red tide blooms are still not completely understood, and researchers are looking at all aspects to know how these toxic blooms occur. It’s a naturally occurring algae, but when it occurs in high concentrations it becomes toxic to both marine animals and humans.

Mote Marine did in a separate study in June with Genie the glider to look at various water conditions that might lead to an outbreak, and the Department of Health keeps tabs on red tide for beach goers. Blooms can occur from late summer to early fall.

This story was originally published August 9, 2016 at 3:35 PM with the headline "Experts: No major red tide outbreak on west coast this year."