GOP poll shows Vern Buchanan with 22-point lead over Keith Fitzgerald

A new poll by U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan's re-election campaign shows him with a 22-percentage-point lead over Democratic challenger Keith Fitzgerald for the local seat in Congress.

A memo released by Buchanan's pollster, Public Opinion Strategies, concludes that Buchanan is "well positioned" to win re-election from a newly redrawn 16th Congressional District.

The poll showed 54 percent of likely voters supporting Buchanan, with 32 percent supporting Fitzgerald. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Fitzgerald's campaign dismissed the significance of the poll, while again restating that Buchanan remains under investigation for his fundraising and business practices.

"Congressman Vern Buchanan is under investigation by a Tampa grand jury, the IRS, the FBI, Justice Department, the Office of House Ethics, and CNN. Of course he released a bogus poll," said Adam Scott, Fitzgerald's campaign manager.

(The Federal Elections Commission and House Ethics Committee ended probes of Buchanan without taking action against him. The other investigations, including a separate one by the Ethics Committee, are pending.)

Despite the poll numbers, Fitzgerald has remained competitive in raising money for his campaign. Recently filed reports show Fitzgerald collected more money than Buchanan from individual donors during the second quarter of 2012. But Buchanan maintains a large lead in "cash on hand" -- the amount of contributions raised minus money spent.

In the poll, 53 percent of those surveyed had a "favorable" view of Buchanan, R-Sarasota, versus 33 percent "unfavorable," according to the memo.

Only 45 percent of respondents recognized Fitzgerald's name, a point amplified by the finding that only 16 percent viewed him favorably and 7 percent viewed him unfavorably, according to the memo.

Forty-two percent of respondents said they "definitely" will vote for Buchanan, while only 21 percent expressed an identical affinity for Fitzgerald, according to the poll.

The survey of 400 likely voters was conducted July 15-16 in the 16th District, which is largely comprised of Manatee and Sarasota and Manatee.

This story was originally published July 19, 2012 at 12:00 AM with the headline "GOP poll shows Vern Buchanan with 22-point lead over Keith Fitzgerald."