‘Extreme’ drought hits Manatee County. Expert predicts how long it could last
Drought conditions in Manatee County and Southwest Florida are getting worse, and the National Weather Service says there isn’t much chance of improvement in the coming months.
In Manatee and surrounding counties, the drought recently progressed from severe to extreme, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. That’s the fourth of five levels on the drought severity scale, followed only by exceptional drought.
Local governments across Central and South Florida, including in Manatee County, have implemented burn bans as these conditions intensify, and water management districts across the state have enacted water conservation restrictions.
In Manatee County, the Southwest Florida Water Management District is enforcing a once-a-week yard yard watering policy and other limitations.
Here’s what to know about the drought and how long it could last.
What’s causing drought in Manatee County?
A near-record lack of rainfall is driving the drought, according to Austen Flannery, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service of Tampa Bay in Ruskin.
“From September 1, 2025, to March 2, 2026, that’s the second-driest period that has ever been on record,” Flannery said. “So that’s the reason that we’re in extreme drought.”
The lack of hurricanes and tropical depressions last fall is much of the cause for this less-than-average rainfall, although Flannery says he doesn’t “think anybody’s complaining about” that.
“We had no rain, no big tropical systems to bring in significant rain, and the dry season kicked off a little earlier than it normally does, so the rainy season ended pretty early,” Flannery said. “That combination started us out being pretty dry.”
Another big reason for this drought is hotter-than-average weather, Flannery said.
“With the temperatures already now well above normal, which we have already hit that point here in March, that increases the evaporation of what rain has fallen,” Flannery said.
How you can help drought from getting worse
For residents of Manatee County, there’s a larger risk of fires, and water conservation is essential.
Flannery recommends that residents have a thorough understanding of drought restrictions, such as burn bans and watering limitations.
“Be good stewards of the water that we have because we love to think that there’s lots of water everywhere, but it is a finite resource for us,” Flannery said.
“If we don’t get our normal rains to replenish those systems, and if we’re wasteful with our use of water day-to-day, then it puts a strain on the system.”
How long might drought conditions last?
Looking forward, Flannery says, “above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall” are expected for the next few months.
“That combination is not likely to lead to significant improvement in conditions,” Flannery said. “So the expectation is … for the drought conditions to persist probably until the rainy season kicks in.”
The months in which Florida typically receives the most rainfall are mid-May through October, so there is a high likelihood that these drought conditions will stick around until then.
“There is still a possibility that drought conditions could still get worse if we don’t really see at least our normal rainfall for this time of year,” Flannery said.
This story was originally published March 10, 2026 at 10:00 AM.
