Is growth draining Manatee’s drinking water? Officials look to tap new sources

As new development and population growth increase demand on Manatee County’s drinking water supply, officials say they’ll soon have to tap new sources to keep up.

At a recent meeting, staff told commissioners that Manatee County’s water demand could exceed supplies in just a decade — sooner than previously expected.

Currently, potable water for unincorporated Manatee County comes from two places: about two-thirds from the Lake Manatee Reservoir and the rest from wells in eastern Manatee County.

The county has historically had excess drinking water on hand, allowing it to sell water to other municipalities including Palmetto, Bradenton and Sarasota County.

But the excess is shrinking as Manatee County’s population balloons with tens of thousands of new residents. Based on current projections, by 2036, Manatee County could go from a surplus of drinking water to a deficit, forcing officials to buy water from another source.

“The long and short of this is, we’re seeing the impacts of growth,” Manatee County Utilities Director Patrick Shea told commissioners at a recent meeting. “Water use is increasing as our population increases.”

As the deadline to find new drinking water draws closer, officials are looking at multiple ways to fill the gap.

How much is drinking water demand increasing?

According to a report prepared for Manatee County Government, the county’s number of drinking water users is expected to grow by 11% within 10 years and 29% within 25 years — a total increase of 124,000 people.

Those estimates include tourists, seasonal residents and commuters in addition to permanent residents, the report says.

The report says the county’s water usage is expected to increase from around 48 million gallons a day to 54 million gallons a day by 2035 — a 13% increase — and to around 61 million gallons a day by 2046 — a 28% increase.

Engineers also included a safety margin in the forecast. While the average person in Manatee County uses about 97 gallons of water per day, the forecast budgets 110 gallons per person.

The report also accounts for several new developments slated for construction east of the county’s Future Area Development Boundary that are not yet connected to the county’s water supply, including East River Ranch and Del Webb.

Where will Manatee County find more water?

Manatee County officials are looking at multiple ways to shore up the county’s water supply.

Shea said staff are “optimistic” that Manatee County will get state approval to draw several million more gallons per day from Lake Manatee and the East County Wellfield by 2029.

The county is also planning to construct a new wellfield as part of the Buffalo Creek Reverse Osmosis Water Treatment Plant, a $188 million facility planned between Palmetto and Parrish. With an estimated completion date of 2031, the plant is expected to produce 3 million gallons of water per day. That amount could increase to 5 million gallons in 2045, the report says.

Manatee County officials also have a plan in place to gradually reduce the amount of water sold to Sarasota to zero over the next 12 years as supplies become more precious. The county plans to continue selling a combined 5 million gallons per day to Bradenton, Palmetto and Longboat Key.

Manatee County may need Peace River water sooner than expected

Finally, the county plans to source any additional water it needs from the Peace River — an approximately 105-mile river that spans Polk, Hardee, DeSoto and Charlotte counties.

Manatee County was one of the founding members of the Peace River Manasota Regional Water Supply Authority in 1982, and officials have long planned on the river as a future source of water to support growth.

But that date has gradually moved from 2038 to 2036 over the past several years as demand spiked. It will also come at a higher cost to the county and water customers.

“The cheapest source water we can find is what we want to provide our customers to be able to keep our rates as low as possible,” Shea said. “The water we would receive from Peace River water authority is quite expensive.”

As part of the agreement, Manatee County has to give the authority a seven-year notice of when it will need water.

“If nothing else changes, we would need water from Peace River by 2036,” Shea said.

Getting water from the Peace River to Manatee County will also be a major infrastructure undertaking.

“Drive down to the Peace River and just imagine a large transmission main from there to here,” said Shea, who estimated the cost could be as much as $500 million.

The water authority typically finances connection infrastructure, with costs paid back over time by its member governments. Funding from state agencies and the Florida Legislature can also help supplement the costs.

What happens next?

At the commission meeting, the board unanimously approved a letter to the Peace River authority that confirms the county’s need for 5 million gallons of water per day by 2036.

During public comment, East Manatee County resident Mark Van De Ree blamed overdevelopment for impacting local water supplies. He also encouraged county leaders not to rely on Peace River’s water as a “false sense of security.”

Manatee is among several Gulf Coast counties currently experiencing a severe drought, which Van De Ree argued could be a preview of future conditions.

“If we don’t have water, Peace River’s not going to have water,” Van De Ree said. “Don’t allow the county to overextend its ability to support life.”

The county updates its water demand projections annually, so the timeline for finding more water could continue to shift.

DeSoto, Charlotte and Sarasota counties, as well as the City of North Port, are already purchasing water from the Peace River.

This story was originally published January 20, 2026 at 5:50 AM.