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Will Bradenton, Manatee see the coldest Christmas in 20 years? Here’s latest forecast

A storm system in the Gulf of Mexico will bring rain to the Tampa Bay area Tuesday afternoon and will impact most of Manatee County, National Weather Service forecaster Rick Travis told the Bradenton Herald on Tuesday morning.

Expect rain Tuesday afternoon, beginning about 1 p.m., and heavy rain later tonight, he said.

No severe weather is expected, but there is a gale warning for offshore waters in the Gulf of Mexico.

A major winter storm is forecast to send temperatures plunging to record lows across the country, with below-freezing weather in northern Florida and cold temperatures in Southwest Florida.

Davis said Christmas weekend could bring some of the lowest temperatures the area has experienced in over 20 years, but a clear picture of just how cold it could get won’t be clear until later this week.

As of Tuesday, Temperatures are expected to be around 38 degrees the night before Christmas, with a high of 53 degrees on Christmas morning.

A low of 39 is forecast for Christmas night.

If these temperatures stay as is, Bradenton and much of Manatee County could experience their coldest Christmas day since 1999, when some area lows reached into the bottom 40s, according to local weather records.

“The high temperature in the area on Christmas day in 1999 was 58 degrees, and the high temperature in 2001 was also 58 degrees; we were expecting a high in the lower to mid-50s, so that looks colder than we’ve seen”, Davis said.

After the holidays, the cold weather could remain in the region for two days, and warmer temperatures aren’t expected to return to the area until next Tuesday.

“Regardless of how you feel about it, this weekend is looking very chilly, 15 to 25 degrees below normal in fact,” the Weather Service tweeted Tuesday. “Make sure your weekend holiday plans account for this!”

Rain forecast for Tuesday, Dec. 20, 2022
Rain forecast for Tuesday, Dec. 20, 2022 National Weather Service
Forecast low temperatures for Christmas morning
Forecast low temperatures for Christmas morning National Weather Service

Manatee County’s weather forecast

Tuesday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly after 1 p.m., High near 75. East wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tuesday Night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 1 a.m., then a chance of showers. Low around 61. East wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three-quarters of an inch possible.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 74. Northeast wind 6 to 9 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. East-northeast wind around 6 mph becoming calm after midnight.

Thursday: A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1 p.m., mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. Light and variable wind becoming south southwest 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Thursday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. South southwest wind 6 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers before 1p.m., mostly sunny, with a high near 73. Breezy, with a northwest wind 10 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 40. Breezy, with a north northwest wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 54. Breezy, with a north wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38.

Christmas Day: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 53. Breezy.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 58.

Estimates for probability of temperatures below freezing over Christmas weekend as of Dec. 17.
Estimates for probability of temperatures below freezing over Christmas weekend as of Dec. 17. National Weather Service

This story was originally published December 20, 2022 at 12:53 PM.

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