Hurricane Maria becomes dangerous Cat 4 storm as it nears the Leeward Islands

Maria ballooned into an intense Category 4 hurricane Monday afternoon as it neared the tiny island of Dominica on a track that will likely take it over Puerto Rico by mid week.

In a 5 p.m. advisory, National Hurricane Center forecasters said the ferocious storm was about 45 miles east-southeast of the island, with sustained winds of 130 mph. Maria had developed a “dreaded pinhole eye,” signaling the storm could grow stronger. A hurricane hunter plane is schedule to fly into the storm about 11:30 p.m. and could find stronger winds, they said.

A hurricane warning was issued for Puerto Rico, with island governments in Maria’s path urging residents to hurry preparations as time runs out.

“This is not a time for heroism," Dominica Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit said in a morning press conference.

In St. Kitts and Nevis, Foreign Affairs Minister Mark Brantely tweeted that the islands are "praying for God's mercy."

A high pressure ridge is steering the storm to the west-northwest, forecasters said, which should continue for the next three days. After crossing the Leeward Islands tonight, it’s expected to near the Virgin Islands and pass near or over Puerto Rico in 48 hours. Once past Puerto Rico, it could begin turning to the northwest as the ridge weakens.

Later in the week, the storm could near the Turks and Caicos, another Irma victim, as it heads toward the Bahamas. Winds may slow slightly, but forecasters still expect it to be a major storm.

Hurricane conditions are likely to begin Tuesday afternoon across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Vieques and Culebra and in Puerto Rico late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, the National Weather Service’s San Juan office said. Hurricane force winds could last more than a day, almost exactly a week after Irma’s eye crossed the Virgin Islands and passed along the north coast of Puerto Rico, pummeling the island for about six hours as it moved along the coast.

If Maria makes landfall in Puerto Rico, it would be the first hit to the islands since Hurricane Georges in 1998, said Colorado State meteorologist Phil Klotzbach said, which went on to make landfall in Key West.

It’s not yet clear what threat Maria poses to Florida or the U.S. coast, although a landfall looks unlikely. The high pressure ridge should weaken in about five days, allowing the storm to turn to the north-northwest and take the storm away from Florida. But how weak that ridge becomes depends on part on Hurricane Jose, off the coast of the Carolinas.

Models take the storm offshore up the U.S. east coast. But forecasts so far in advance can be more than 200 miles miles off.

Unlike Irma, Maria is a compact storm, with hurricane winds extending just 15 miles from the center — Irma’s reached 80 miles — and tropical storm force winds reaching 125 miles. Maria formed much further east, so it hasn’t had time to undergo eyewall replacements that built Irma into a beast capable of spreading devastating winds across islands and from coast to coast in Florida. Late Monday, forecasters said there’s still a chance Maria undergoes an eyewall replacement in the coming days.

Heavy rain, from six to 12 inches, could fall in the central and southern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands through Wednesday. Amounts as high as 20 inches are possible in some places. Puerto Rico could get see the same, but with some places facing up to 25 inches and capable of triggering dangerous flash floods and mudslides.

Last week, Irma became one of the strongest hurricanes on record, maintaining winds over 180 mph for nearly two days. Islands in the storm's path suffered widespread devastation. On Barbuda, more than 90 percent of the buildings were destroyed, including the hospital and airport. Irma hit St. Martin with Category 5-force winds, turning the picturesque island into a jumble of blown apart buildings and shredded trees.

Maria is the seventh hurricane this season in what was expected to be an above average year, with five to nine hurricanes and two to five major storms predicted. But 2017 may end up easily beating that forecast with more than two months to go during the busiest part of the Atlantic season. Forecasters are also keeping an eye on Hurricane Jose, which began generating dangerous waves and rip currents along the east coast Monday, and Lee, which slowed from a tropical storm to a depression and is expected to fall apart tonight or Tuesday.

Staff writer Jacqueline Charles contributed to this report.

This story was originally published September 18, 2017 at 5:31 PM with the headline "Hurricane Maria becomes dangerous Cat 4 storm as it nears the Leeward Islands."