Red tide may be declining. For now.

We don’t want to jinx it. We really don’t. But red tide in Manatee could be showing signs of slowing down.

The data collected by the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission over the past four weeks show a trend that the majority of the water samples taken around Manatee County are being tested with less and less Karenia brevis cells.

Karenia brevis, the red tide phytoplankton, is naturally occurring, but only in large concentrations can it become toxic to marine life and bothersome to humans.

In its testing process, the FWC uses five levels to quantify how bad the red tide is in the area: not present/background means 1,000 Karenia brevis cells or less per liter of water; very low is 1,000 to 10,000 and possible respiratory irritation; low means 10,000 to 100,000 with definite respiratory irritation and possible fish kills; medium is 100,000 to 1,000,000 and can guarantee respiratory irritation and probable fish kills; and more than 1,000,000 will bring all of the above with reddish-brown color to the water.

Water samples taken around Manatee County’s shores have trended downward, from being present in medium concentrations in nine of the 19 samples from Jan. 27 report to two of the 13 samples from Feb. 17. There haven’t been high concentrations found in samples in the past four weeks, but water drawn from the Rod and Reel Pier on the tip of Anna Maria Island has consistently shown medium concentrations, according to the FWC.

Despite this, Rod & Reel Pier restaurant manager Jim Malfese said business hasn’t been affected.

“I haven’t heard anyone have any problems walking the beach in the past month,” he said Monday morning.

Malfese said he thinks the long-lasting red tide has been caused by the 190 million gallons of sewage dumped by the city of St. Petersburg into Tampa Bay waters since August 2015, and even more during Hurricane Hermine last August. The Rod and Reel Pier jets out into lower Tampa Bay. While nutrient sources in the water do help feed the phytoplankton, scientists are confident that man-made nutrient sources like wastewater or fertilizer don’t create red tide.

A slight tingle to the throat could only be explained by red tide’s lingering presence, but the restaurant was still full of hungry patrons and the pier was stocked with anglers.

Tim Guarino and Norman Locke claimed a corner of the pier to dangle their fishing rods in the water, as they do two or three times a week. But they said the past few weeks hasn’t been all that great.

Guarino recalls seagulls that had snacked on dead fish lining the shore, which then brought a putrid smell to the pier.

“It wasn’t a pleasant time,” Locke said.

With a longer coastline compared to Manatee, Sarasota County has had it worse.

From Longboat Key to Blind Pass Beach in Englewood, the majority of Sarasota’s samplings have been in the low to medium range. For three weeks, New Pass Dock in Sarasota Bay has been hit with high concentrations. Most recently, Nokomis Beach and the North Jetty have had high concentrations.

The recent presence of red tide has been out of its normal season, usually in late summer to early fall. It’s important to note that due to the nature of water, the same beach can have high concentrations of red tide on one end and background levels on the other end. Yet scientists are still understanding the behavior of red tide, so there’s no definite saying on what the future of Manatee’s beaches will hold.

This story was originally published February 20, 2017 at 12:07 PM with the headline "Red tide may be declining. For now.."