Manatee County is about to be a hot spot for new COVID-19 cases, study predicts
As Florida and other states begin to reopen, there are concerns that many places have yet to reach or pass their peak of COVID-19 cases.
Under the first phase of Gov. Ron DeSantis’ plan to reopen the state, restaurants and retail stores can reopen beginning Monday, operating at 25% of their maximum indoor capacity. Elective surgical procedures will also resume.
But one case study has identified 22 small metropolitan and rural counties in eight states that appear to be on the verge of an exponential surge in cases. Manatee County is among those impending hot spots identified.
Four other counties in Florida also made the list: Bay, Escambia, Polk and Volusia.
Dataminr is a New York-based private firm that used its artificial intelligence platform to conduct the case study. Published April 23, the study looked at how impending spikes in case counts could be predicted by identifying clusters of public social media posts in which people are talking about testing positive, experiencing symptoms or being exposed but not tested; and first-hand accounts of confirmed cases from relatives, friends, and colleagues, as well as COVID-19 related supply shortages and closures.
“COVID-19 is the first pandemic of the age of social media and information is moving faster than the virus itself. More than ever, people are posting real-time, first-hand accounts of what they see, hear, and are experiencing as it relates to the virus,” Jason Edelboim, president and COO at Dataminr, said in a statement to the Bradenton Herald.
The study also found that clusters of these social media posts were indicators of exponential growth in COVID-19 official case counts in major urban counties across the same eight states six to 13 days beforehand.
“These social media clusters, detected through Dataminr’s AI platform, represent the ‘ground truth’ of the virus as it unfolds, and have proven to be a leading indicator for impending coronavirus outbreak severity, helping organizations and corporations – including local hospitals and frontline staff – to more quickly determine their response, allocate resources, protect people, and minimize disruption to their operations,” Edelboim said.
The study uses the National Center for Health Statistics definition for small metropolitan and rural counties as “non-major urban areas located within metropolitan statistical area with a population under 999,999.”
Dataminr accurately predicted spikes in 14 states identified in its previous study using the same methodology. Within a week of publishing that study on March 30, the spikes occurred in Arizona, Indiana, Maryland, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina, Virginia, Tennessee, Utah, Alabama, Minnesota, and Kentucky.
In a March 30 study, Dataminr identified 14 U.S. states where the data suggested there could be an impending spike in case counts based on growth trends in eyewitness social media clusters. Within one week after publication of the study, the exponential case spike occurred in all 14 states.
Manatee County has been plagued with extremely limited testing despite having the state’s first confirmed case that was community acquired.
As of Friday morning, there were 587 confirmed cases of people testing positive for the coronavirus in the county. The official local COVID-19 death toll stood at 57.
The county has yet to test even one percent of it’s population, the most recent minimum goal set by county officials. Less than 4,000 people had been tested as of Friday.
The percentage of those who test positive in Manatee County continues to remain high, 15.1%, Manatee’s positive rate has consistently remained among the highest in the state.
“We know our cases continue to go up. We expect those to continue to go up as we ramp up our testing,” Manatee County Director of Public Safety Jacob Saur said. “A couple concerns I have is that we still want the message to the public that they need to get tested.”
But Saur feels that the county has finally turned a corner after weeks of a shortage in testing supplies.
The county’s drive-thru testing site at the Bradenton Area Convention Center reopened on Wednesday for three days, testing up to 80 people per day with a scheduled appointment. The site will reopen next week for the same three days, upping appointments to 100 per day.
As part of its partnership with Manatee County government, MCR Health is also offering drive-thru testing on Saturday at four of its locations.
The National Guard has also setup a regional drive-thru testing site at The Mall at University Town Center in Sarasota to serve Manatee and Sarasota counties.
With more options for residents to get tested, the hope is that anyone who is experiencing symptoms or has been in contact with someone who has tested positive for COVID-19, is able get tested.
Increased testing will allow the county to identify where local pockets of outbreaks are located, according to Saur, so officials can determine how to focus their efforts.
Saur feels DeSantis is on the right track with his plan to reopen Florida.
“My concern is within our area, the continued uptick in cases and high positive rate,” Saur said. “We’ve got a lot more tests to do before everybody can get back to some kind of normalcy. And normalcy will look a lot different than it used to for a long time.”
The county is now focused on when to open additional county services or buildings, and what that will look like. There may be some county employees who will permanently work from home in the future.
“The message here in Manatee County is still a very slow approach because our numbers,” Saur said.
