Projection shows COVID-19 cases in Manatee County could top 100 by Monday
The number of COVID-19 cases in Manatee County could top 100 by Monday, according to projections calculated by a U.S. Department of Health and Human Services consultant.
The statewide projections, dated March 30 and with breakdowns for several counties including Manatee, Sarasota, Hillsborough, Miami-Dade and Broward, were shared with county emergency management officials in Florida on Tuesday with no context or guidelines on how the information should be used. It is also unclear if the models are based on increased testing, spread of the disease or some combination.
Florida was predicted to have 19,870 positive cases of COVID-19 by Monday, according to IEM’s projections. As of Wednesday evening, there were 7,773 cases.
According to the projections, Manatee County was predicted to have 111 positive cases by Monday, and Sarasota County was expected to have 174. As of Wednesday evening. Manatee and Sarasota had 70 and 89 cases, respectively.
The report provided day-by-day projections for the state and 21 of Florida’s 67 counties.
Tampa Bay’s hot spot, Hillsborough County, was projected to have 903 cases, or more than three times the number of cases, by Monday. Miami-Dade was projected to have 8,956, or more than five times the number of cases, and Broward is expected to have 4,650, or more than four times the number of cases.
Officials with the Florida Department of Health and Manatee Department of Health did not respond to requests for comment.
Hospital chief calls for more actions to stop COVID-19
Manatee Memorial Hospital CEO Kevin DiLallo has been vocal that more proactive measures are needed against COVID-19, otherwise his and other hospitals could be overrun with patients. Last week, he implored officials during the Manatee County Board of County Commissioners meeting to take more aggressive measures like shutting down non-essential businesses.
On Wednesday, Gov. Ron DeSantis did issue a statewide stay-at-home order that is set to go into effect at 12:01 a.m. Friday.
DiLallo told the Bradenton Herald on Wednesday afternoon that there needs to be more closures.
“As a community we need to be thinking more serious about this,” DiLallo said. “The stay-at-home order is good, but you may even need curfews.”
Manatee County is especially vulnerable, DiLallo believes, because of the percentage of the population that is 55 years old and over, and even more so the percentage of those 70 years old and over.
“That concerns me. It puts a tremendous stress and strain on healthcare workers,” DiLallo said.
The growing use of personal protective equipment was among the concerns he brought to the commission’s attention. At Manatee Memorial, he has already implemented to changes to help reduce the rate of use, including transforming an entire 16-bed unit in the hospital into a COVID unit.
The creation of the COVID unit eliminates the need for staff there to constantly be changing in and out of their PPE. Instead, they are always wearing PPE except when they are on breaks. It also allows for the same staff members to care for multiple COVID patients.
DiLallo said he fears Manatee County is still two to three weeks out from slowing the rate of growth of new COVID-19 cases.
“Its tough to say what that peak will be because it all depends on what we do as a community,” DiLallo said.
As of Tuesday, several counties, including Manatee, Sarasota and Miami-Dad,e had exceeded for the day the number of cases projected for the day.
The company that developed the projections, IEM, has been a HHS consultant for more than 15 years. It says it has been refining its artificial intelligence based models for about a month to create the projections. The company claims it’s projections have typically been within 20%, but often within 10%, of the number of actual confirmed cases.
This story was originally published April 1, 2020 at 5:02 PM.
